[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving west of the Cabo Verde Islands is along
28W from 09N-27N, moving west at 15 kt. A pronounced 700 mb
trough in the GFS analysis is noted with this wave, along with a
surface trough from scatterometer data.  The total precipitable
water imagery also shows a maximum east of the trough axis. No
significant deep convection is present with this wave. This wave
does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during
the next five days.

A tropical wave in the east-central Atlantic with axis extending
from 02N-21N along 42W is moving west at 10-15 kt. It is weakly
depicted in 700 mb tropical trough diagnostics and a negligible
surface circulation. North of 13N, the wave is embedded with a
large Saharan Air Layer.  No significant deep convection is
present with this wave. This wave does not pose a threat of
tropical cyclone development during the next five days.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis south of 23N
near 66W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave was well-defined at
700 mb from the San Juan and Guadeloupe upper air soundings this
morning, and slight wind shifts seen in surface observations at
the 1326 UTC ASCAT scatterometer. Scattered moderate convection
is inland over Venezuela between 65W-69W. This wave does not
pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next
five days.

A tropical wave over Central America extending south of 22N
along 90W, moving westward at 15-20 kt, based upon the Cancun
and Merida rawindsonde winds at 700 mb, as well as the tropical
trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection exists from
17N-22N between 89W-91W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 10N30W.  The ITCZ extends from 10N30W to the coast of South
America near 10N62W. Scattered moderate convection is present
north of 05N east of 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends into the eastern Gulf from the W
Atlantic. With a flat pressure gradient, winds are only 5-10 kt
across the entire Gulf.  An upper level low centered near 27N88W
is supporting moderate convection in the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico. Winds will remain light during the next couple
of days. Substantial moisture and upper-level trough forcing
should contribute toward scattered moderate to strong deep
convection over the Gulf during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with
low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica associated with the monsoon
trough in the NE Pacific continues a moderate pressure gradient
over the Caribbean.  Easterly trade winds are 10-20 kt with a
localized peak of 25 kt Just NW of Colombia.  Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 19N-23N between 84W-90W. In the SW
Caribbean, the monsoon trough supports moderate deep convection
from 07N-12N between 77W-85W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and
Costa Rica. Little change is expected during the next couple of
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin; see the section
above for details. The subtropical high dominates the remainder
of the basin. Scattered moderate convection is observed over the
W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging will dominate the
central and eastern Atlantic through the next couple of days
providing stable and dry conditions, except for scattered
moderate convection associated with the wave currently near 26W.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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