[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends over the Cabo Verde Islands near 26W
from 08N-24N, moving westward around 10 kt. A pronounced 700 mb
trough in the GFS analysis is noted with this wave, along with a
surface trough as see from the 1142 UTC ASCAT scatterometer
pass.  The total precipitable water imagery also shows a maximum
east of the trough axis. No significant deep convection is
present with this wave at present. This wave does not pose a
threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days.

A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis extending
from 02N-20N along 41W, moving westward around 15 kt. This was
only weakly is depicted in the 700 mb tropical trough diagnostic
and has negligible surface circulation.  North of 13N, the wave
is embedded with a large Saharan Air Layer.  No significant deep
convection is present with this wave at present. This wave does
not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the
next five days.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
01N-22N near 64W, moving westward about 20 kt. The wave is well-
defined as seen in 700 mb turning of the winds at the San Juan
and Guadeloupe rawindsondes from 12Z this morning.  There is
also some slight wind shifts seen in surface observations at the
1326 UTC ASCAT scatterometer.  Scattered moderate convection is
inland over Venezuela from 07N-10N between 60W-64W. This wave
does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during
the next five days.

A tropical wave is over Central America extending from 00N-20N
near 88W, moving westward around 15 kt. This wave was
repositioned farther west, based upon the Cancun and Merida
rawindsondes winds at 700 mb, as well as the tropical trough
diagnostics.  Scattered moderate convection exists from 19N-23N
between 84W-90W. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical
cyclone development over the Atlantic basin during the next five
days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 09N21W where it breaks east of a tropical wave.  The ITCZ
extends from 10N27W to 08N40W. W of a tropical wave, the ITCZ
resumes near 08N43W and continues to the coast of South America
near 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection exists north of 05N
east of 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge into the eastern Gulf from the western
Atlantic.  With a very flat pressure gradient, winds are only 5-
10 kt across the entire Gulf.  An upper level low is centered
near 27N88W, which is helping to promote isolated moderate
convection in the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico.  Winds
will remain light during the next couple of days.  Substantial
moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward
scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf
during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with
low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica association with the NE
Pacific monsoon trough are contribution toward a moderate
pressure gradient over the Caribbean.  This results in easterly
tradewinds for 10-20 kt with a local peak of 25 kt just
northwest of Colombia as seen in a 1428 UTC ASCAT scatterometer
pass.  Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean;
please refer to the section above for details.  Scattered
moderate convection exists from 19N-23N between 84W-90W.  In the
southwest Caribbean, the NE Pacific's monsoon trough supports
numerous moderate and scattered deep convection from 07N-12N
between 77W-85W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica.
Little change is expected during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin; please refer to
the section above for details. A 1028 mb Bermuda-Azores high
dominates the remainder of the basin, centered near 35N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed over the W Atlantic N
of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and
eastern Atlantic through the next couple of days providing
stable and dry conditions, except for scattered moderate
convection associated with the wave currently near 26W.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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