[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends over the Cabo Verde Islands along 26W
from 06N-22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is
noted with this wave, and model guidance supports its location.
No significant deep convection is present with this wave at
present.

A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis extending
from 05N-20N along 40W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb
low is centered near 21N38W over the northern portion of the
wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust is hindering
convection with this wave.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
06N-20N along 63W, moving westward at 20 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection with this feature N of 12N. Widely scattered moderate
convection is inland over Venezuela from 04N-07N between 62W-
67W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis
extending from 08N-20N along 77W, moving westward at 20 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated deep convection exists from 17N-
20N between 74W-78W. Numerous moderate and scattered deep
convection is occurring from 06N-11N between 74W-78W over the SW
Caribbean, Panama, Costa Rica, and NW Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 08N38W. W of a
tropical wave, the ITCZ resumes near 08N42W and continues to the
coast of South America near 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection exists north of 04N east of 18W.  Scattered showers
are present within 120 nm of the ITCZ west of 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the basin along 29N. 5-10 kt
variable winds prevail over most of the Gulf waters. Scattered
moderate convection is over the N Gulf N of 28N E of 88W. Expect
convection to increase over the E Gulf through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture prevails across the NW basin; and two tropical
wave are moving across the Caribbean. Refer to the section above
for details. A divergent environment aloft is supporting
scattered moderate and isolated deep convection from 17N-20N
between 74W-78W and 19N-21N between 81W-85W. In the southwest
Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough and a tropical wave
supports numerous moderate and scattered deep convection from
06N-11N between 74W-78W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, Costa
Rica, and NW Colombia.  Fresh to strong winds are forecast to
pulse every night over the south-central basin through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. Diffluent flow between the base of
an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS continues to
support scattered moderate convection over the W Atlantic N of
25N to include the Bahamas W of 75W. The Atlantic subtropical
ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a
1028 mb high centered near 37N45W. Surface ridging will dominate
the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing
stable and dry conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea/Formosa
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