[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT tue Jul 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa along 21W from 05N-
17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A well defined surface trough is
evident from scatterometer data, and a maximum in the total
precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is in
the southern wave environment from 05N-09N between 14W-27W
associated with the monsoon trough

A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands along 32W from
07N-26N, moving west at 15-20 kt. A pronounced 700 mb trough in
the GFS analysis is noted with this wave. No convection is
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 47W from
02N-21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Saharan Air Layer dry air and
dust inhibit deep convection from developing at the time.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along
72W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated convection is inland
over Venezuela and Hispaniola.

A tropical wave is along 95W, moving westward at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection exists in the Bay of
Campeche...heavy showers and tstms are E of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 10N21W to 09N32W. The ITCZ continues from 09N32W to the coast
of South America near 06N58W, disrupted near 07N44W where it
intersects a tropical wave axis. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 05N-09N east of 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge and weak pressure gradient extends into the
eastern Gulf from the W Atlantic. Winds are only 5-10 kt across
the entire Gulf. An upper level trough is supporting widely
scattered moderate convection in the southeastern Gulf. Winds
will remain light during the next couple of days. Substantial
moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward
scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf
during the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with
low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica associated with the monsoon
trough in the NE Pacific supports a moderate pressure gradient
over the Caribbean. Trade winds are 10-20 kt with highest winds
around 25 kt just NW of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 18N-21N between 78W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the
monsoon trough supports widespread showers south of 12N between
75W-83W. Little change expected during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves moving across the basin are detailed above.
The subtropical high dominates the basin. Isolated convection is
observed in the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging
will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next
couple of days providing stable and dry conditions, except for
scattered convection associated with the wave currently near 19W.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
DM/NR
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