[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 AM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa with axis extending
from 07N-20N along 19W, moving westward at 15 kt. A 700 mb trough
is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and
dust is hindering convection N of 14N. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the axis S of 14N.

A tropical wave extends over the east Atlantic with axis from
05N-17N along 36W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is engulfed
in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass, that is suppressing
convection mainly north of 10N. Shallow moisture associated with
the monsoon trough and diffluence in the upper-levels support
scattered moderate convection from 06N-09N between 35W-39W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 04N-18N along 46W, moving westward at 15 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N
between 41W-46W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
06N-19N along 61W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 12N. Scattered showers are W of the wave axis
from 06N-11N between 59W-64W.

A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south
of 21N along 81W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over Cuba from 20N-23N between
77W-84W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the
southern portion of the wave from 09N-12N between 76W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 20N16W
to 10N24W to 09N36W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to
07N45W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N47W and
continues to the coast of South America near 05N53W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is from 8N-10N between 28W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A small 1018 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near
27N85W with 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds. A staionary front is just
N of the Florida Panhandle. Scattered showers remain over Florida
and N Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly fair weather is over the W Gulf.
Surface ridging will prevail again across the basin over the
weekend. Scattered showers are likely over the Bay of Campeche
associated with a tropical wave that will move into this region by
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent
environment aloft are supporting scattered showers over the NW
Caribbean from 19N-22N between 80W-86W. In the southwest
Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered showers
south of 12N between 76W-82W. This activity is also related to a
tropical wave, currently extending along 81W. Isolated showers
are occurring over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola
due to an upper-level low centered north of Hispaniola near
21N71W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 61W. Another
tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by Sun night.
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are forecast for the south-
central basin through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the
base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high
over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers
north of 20N W of 73W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates
the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb high
centered near 37N53W. Surface ridging will dominate the central
and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry
conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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