[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the east Atlantic with axis
from 05N-17N along 34W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is being
covered by a Saharan air, which is suppressing convection mainly
north of 10N. Shallow moisture associated with the monsoon trough
and diffluence in the upper-levels support scattered showers along
the wave's axis south of 10N.

A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with axis extending from
05N-17N along 44W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection at this time.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 06N-19N along 59W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 12N. Scattered moderate convection is W of the
wave axis from 06N-11N between 59W-64W.

A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south
of 21N along 79W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over Cuba. Similar convection is
over the southern portion of the wave from 09N-15N between 76W-
81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 11N22W to 08N30W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to
08N43W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N46W and
continues to the coast of South America near 05N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 0-8N-11N between 26W-28W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 07N- 10N between 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A small 1018 mb high is centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico near
26N85W with 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds. A staionary front is just
N of the Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection is over
most of Florida, Cuba, and N Yucatan Peninsula. Mostly fair
weather is over the W Gulf. Surface ridging will prevail again
across the basin over the weekend. Scattered showers are likely
over the Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave that will
move into this region by Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent
environment aloft are supporting scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection over the NW Caribbean from 19N-22N between
80W-86W. In the southwest Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough
supports scattered showers south of 12N between 78W-83W. This
activity is also related to a tropical wave, currently extending
along 79W. Refer to the section above for more details. Isolated
showers are occurring in the northern Leeward Islands and the
Virgin Islands being supported by diffluence aloft associated to
an upper-level low centered northeast of Puerto Rico. A new
tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles
tonight, and a second wave will enter the east Caribbean by Sun
night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are forecast for the
south-central basin through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the
base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high
over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered moderate
convection north of 20N W of 73W. Farther east, a middle level
low just north of Hispaniola supports a surface trough that
extends from 25N66W to 22N68W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted with this features between 64W-70W. The Atlantic subtropical
ridge dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a
1029 mb high centered near 37N53W. Surface ridging will dominate
the central and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing
stable and dry conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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