[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281155
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 AM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa with axis extending
from 07N-19N along 21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb
trough is noted along the wave axis. Intrusion of Saharan dry air
and dust is hindering convection N of 12N. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the axis S of 12N.

A tropical wave extends over the east Atlantic with axis from
05N-17N along 38W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is
engulfed in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass, that is suppressing
convection mainly north of 10N. Shallow moisture associated with
the monsoon trough and diffluence in the upper-levels support
scattered moderate convection from 06N-09N and west of 38W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 04N-18N along 47W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 10N. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N
between 41W-46W.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from
06N-19N along 63W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. Intrusion
of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave's environment is hindering
convection N of 12N. Scattered showers are W of the wave axis
from 06N-11N between 60W-65W.

A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean with axis south
of 21N along 82W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 09N-12N
between 80W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 20N17W
to 09N25W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 06N48W to 05N53W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A small 1018 mb high is centered over the Florida peninsula near
28N82W with 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds prevailing across the
eastern portion of the basin. A stationary front is just N of the
Florida Panhandle. Scattered showers remain over Florida. Mostly
fair weather is over the W Gulf. Surface ridging will prevail
again across the basin over the weekend. Scattered showers are
likely over the Bay of Campeche associated with a tropical wave
that will move into this region by Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture in the northwest Caribbean with a divergent
environment aloft are supporting scattered showers over the NW
Caribbean from 19N-22N between 81W-86W. In the southwest
Caribbean, the EPAC's monsoon trough supports scattered showers
south of 12N between 76W-82W. This activity is also related to a
tropical wave, currently extending along 82W. Isolated showers
are occurring over Hispaniola due to an upper-level low centered
north of Hispaniola near 21N71W. A tropical wave is over the E
Caribbean along 63W. Another tropical wave will enter the east
Caribbean by Sun night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are
forecast for the south- central basin through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for more details. Diffluent flow between the
base of an upper-level trough over the southeast CONUS and a high
over the northern Bahamas continue to support scattered showers
north of 20N W of 73W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates
the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1029 mb high
centered near 37N53W. Surface ridging will dominate the central
and eastern Atlantic through the weekend providing stable and dry
conditions.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa/ERA
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