[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale, the remnants of Beryl, near 16N 63.5W at 0600 UTC, moving
WNW at 22 kt. Winds are 25-30 kt with frequent gusts to 35 kt
within 90 nm NE semicircle of remnants, with seas 8-15 FT within
90 nm NE semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 15N-19N betweeen 60W-65W. The remnants of Beryl will
continue to move south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
today. Gale conditions are forecast to end at 1800 UTC today.

Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 32.4N 74.6W at 09/0900 UTC
or 174 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving S at 1 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 31N-34N between 71W-76W. The cyclone is
expected to remain nearly stationary during the next day or so.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Chris is forecast to become a hurricane late today or tonight.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 25W from 03N-19N, moving W at 15 kt.
This wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, as confirmed
by recent observations and satellite imagery. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave's axis between 08N-12N.

A tropical wave is along 49W from 02N-13N moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 46W-55W.
Expect fresh winds along the wave's axis as it continues moving
westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 63W/64W from
10N-21N, moving WNW at 22 kt. A gale area is also associated with
the wave E of the wave axis over the Leeward Islands. See above.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 15N-19N betweeen
60W-65W.

A tropical wave is along 85W from 08N-22N, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-18N
between 83W-88W affecting portions of Honduras and adjacent
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from
19N16W to 14N20W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave from
09N25W to 06N40W to 05N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-08N between 36W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the SE Gulf. A surface trough is
moving across the Bay of Campeche with convection mainly south of
21N. This activity will dissipate during the morning hours.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds
across the area. Expect for a trough to move offshore every
evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section on a gale over the Leeward
Islands. Also see the Tropical Waves section for details on two
tropical waves in the Caribbean. Strong to near gale-force winds
will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through the next
48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on Chris.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a 1027 mb surface high centered
near 35N54W. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the
southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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