[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of Beryl are centered near 15.8N 62.4W at 09/0300
UTC or 70 nm WNW of Dominica, moving WNW at 23 kt. A tropical wave
has been analyzed with this system, extending from 21N61W to
10N61W. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. With this, a
gale warning is in effect for the waters within 30 nm over the N
semicircle through the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate
convection is from 15N-18N between 59W- 64W. The remnants of Beryl
will continue moving across the eastern Caribbean during the next
few hours, and then move south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 32.5N 74.5W at 09/0300 UTC
or 140 nm S of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and is moving ESE at
2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 70W-76W. Chris is
forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and additional
strengthening is expected into Tuesday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 22W from 03N-19N, moving W at 15 kt.
This wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, as confirmed
by recent observations and satellite imagery. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave's axis between 08N-12N.

A tropical wave is along 47W from 01N-17N moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered showers are developing along the wave's axis mainly
south of 06N. Expect fresh winds along the wave's axis as it
continues moving westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is along 83W from 08N-22N, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 14N-19N between 81W-87W
affecting portions of Honduras and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from
19N16W to 08N29W where scatterometer data indicates a transition
to an ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues southwest to 05N45W. Aside
from the convection associated with a tropical wave, scattered
showers are noted within 75 nm of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. A surface trough is
moving across the Bay of Campeche with convection mainly south of
20N. This activity will dissipate during the morning hours.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds
across the area. Expect for the trough to move offshore every
evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Little
change is expected elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in
the central Caribbean. Also, refer to the Special Features
section above for details about the remnants of Beryl. Strong to
near gale-force winds will continue off the northwest coast of
Colombia through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trades prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on the
remnants of Beryl and Chris. The remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a
1028 mb surface high centered near 35N55W. Moderate to fresh
winds are observed along the southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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