[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of Beryl are centered near 15.2N 60.3W at 08/2100
UTC or 52 nm E of Martinique moving WNW at 23 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 14N-17N between 59W-62W. The remnants of Beryl will move
across the Leeward Islands during the next few hours, and then
move near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 32.7N 74.6W at 08/2100 UTC
or 140 nm S of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and is stationary at
this time. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 29N-34N between
69W-77W. T.S. Chris is forecast to strengthen over the next 48
hours. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 18.5W from 04N-19N moving W at 15 kt.
This wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, confirmed by
recent observations. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's
axis between 08N-12N.

A tropical wave is along 44W from 01N-16N moving W at 15-20 kt.
No significant convection is related to this wave at this time.
Expect fresh winds along the wave's axis as it continues westward
across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is along 81W from 10N-21N moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-23N between 79W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from
21N17W to 13N20W to 07N30W where scatterometer winds indicate a
transition to an ITCZ. The ITCZ continues southwest to 05N41W. The
ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N44W and continues to
the coast of South America near 04N52W. Aside from the convection
associated with a tropical wave, scattered showers are noted
within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is inland over S Texas. Radar imagery shows
scattered moderate convection over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of
27N between 88W-95W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered
showers over the SE Gulf S of 26N between 80W-89W mostly due to
an upper level low centered near 25N85W. In addition, a surface
trough is over the Bay of Campeche along 93W S of 20N. Scattered
moderate convection is near Veracruz from 18N-20N between 94W-
97W. Expect, a surface trough to move westward off the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening enhancing nocturnal winds across the
southwest gulf waters through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for details on a tropical wave in
the central Caribbean. Also, refer to the Special Features
section above for details about Beryl. Strong to near gale- force
winds will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through
the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on Beryl
and Chris. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under
the influence of a ridge anchored by a 1028 mb surface high
centered near 33N54W. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along
the southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/ERA
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