[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091654
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale, the remnants of Beryl, at 1200 UTC is over the Leeward
Islands from 17N-19.5N between 63W-66W. Winds are 25-30 kt with
frequent gusts to 35 kt. Seas are to 11 ft. Gale conditions are
forecast to end at 10/0000 UTC this evening. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is from 15N-20N betweeen 62W-68W. The
remnants of Beryl is expected to move west-northwestward for the
next day or so, passing over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
today, and over Hispaniola tonight. Unfavorable upper-level winds
and interaction with land should prevent redevelopment during the
next day or two, but environmental conditions could become
somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone later
this week when the system is forecast to turn northward over the
Bahamas and the western Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Chris is centered near 32.2N 74.5W at 09/1500 UTC
or 187 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and is
stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 71W-76W. The cyclone
is expected to remain nearly stationary during the next day or so.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Chris is forecast to become a hurricane Tuesday. A northeastward
motion is forecast to begin late Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to
accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 26W from 03N-20N, moving W at 15 kt.
This wave has a good signature at low to mid levels, as noted on
satellite imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's
axis between 08N-12N.

A tropical wave is along 50W from 02N-13N moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 46W-55W.
Expect fresh winds along the wave's axis as it continues moving
westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave, the remnants of Beryl, is along 65W from 10N-
21N, moving W at 20 kt. A gale area is also associated with the
wave over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. See above.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 15N-20N betweeen
62W-68W.

A tropical wave is along 86W from 09N-22N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean and the
Yucatan Peninsula from 15N-22N between 85W-89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW off the coast of western Africa from
14N17W to 10N25W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave from
10N28W to 06N40W to 05N49W. The ITCZ resumes W of another tropical
wave near 06N52W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-08N between 36W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the E Gulf from 24N-27N between
84W-90W. A surface trough is moving across the Bay of Campeche
with convection near Veracruz. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate easterly winds across the area. Expect for a trough to
move offshore every evening off the Yucatan Peninsula into the
Bay of Campeche. Little change is expected elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section on a gale over the Leeward
Islands. Also see the Tropical Waves section for details on two
tropical waves in the Caribbean. Strong to near gale-force winds
will continue off the northwest coast of Colombia through the next
48 hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on Chris.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered
near 35N54W. Moderate to fresh winds are observed along the
southern periphery of the ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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