[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Jul 2 05:31:19 CDT 2018


AXNT20 KNHC 021030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N28W to 05N29W and
is moving W at around 25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 31W and 36W.
Satellite imagery depects a total precipitable water surge in
conjunction with this wave.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N49W to 03N50W. This
wave is moving W around 25 kt. This wave is well defined in model
700 and 850 mb fields and coincides with an inverted-V signature
in total precipitable water data. At this time, the wave is
surrounded by Saharan dust which is inhibiting almost all of the
deep convection in the vicinity of this wave except for an area of
scattered moderate convection near the southern tip of the wave
from 04N to 06N between 47W and 52W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending
from 19N67W to 04N68W, moving westward around 30 knots. This wave
displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in TPW
satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with
the wave is noted over Venezuela, while Saharan dust surrounding
the northern portion of the wave is inhibiting convection over the
Caribbean. TPW satellite imagery indicates that the tropical
moisture associated with this feature is concentrated to the S of
16N.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec near 18N94W to over the EPAC waters near 10N95W. Total
precipitable water satellite imagery shows the north side of this
wave has only limited moisture to work with on its N side.
Accordingly, Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection
associated with this wave lies primarily over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec between 14N and 17N between 93W and 96W. This wave
will continue moving W across southern Mexico today and support
the formation of showers and thunderstorms along the coast of
Mexico to the W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW over the Atlantic Ocean from
Mauritania on the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 17N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N31W to 05N47W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is observed within 90 nm of a line from 08N13W to 05N25W and from
00N to 04N between 36W and 38W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low centered near 30N87W
over the northeastern Gulf to near 27N89W. Scattered moderate
convection is found along and up to 60 nm E of the trough axis.
The low and trough will gradually shift W toward Louisiana today
and weaken.

The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a weak
high pressure ridge extending W from the Atlantic. The ridge is
producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow and seas of 1-3 ft
over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and seas of 3-5 ft over the western half of the Gulf. This
weak high pressure pattern will change little through mid-week. A
surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
through Wed, enhancing nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through
this period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and
central America. Please see the Tropical Waves section for
details. Scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong winds across
the south-central Caribbean south of 14N between 70W and 78W,
while moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the
basin S of 18N and E of 82W. Light to gentle winds are noted over
the NW Caribbean. A surface ridge will remain north and northeast
of the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the next
few days. Fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean
will gradually diminish through Tue, before strengthening again
on Wed.

Convection continues to flare up over the SW Caribbean mainly in
the vicinity of the monsoon trough, which is just north of Panama
along 09N. An upper-level low, currently just south of central
Cuba, will drift westward across the NW Caribbean through today,
and will enhance convection across the extreme western Caribbean
waters and over land areas across the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the waters between the coast
of West Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details. A surface trough extends from
a 1014 mb low centered near 30N64W to 24N66W. Scattered showers
are from 26N to 30N between 59W and 69W. Enhanced shower activity
is expected to continue in the vicinity of the trough.

Scattered showers north of 28 between 47W-52W are associated with
an upper-level low centered near 31N50W. Surface high pressure
located NW of the Azores is in control of the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlantic discussion waters.

GOES-16 RGB Geocolor imagery continues to show an extensive area
of African dust that extends from the west coast of Africa to the
eastern Caribbean. The Saharan dust occasionally obscures sky
conditions near the Caribbean islands. The dust turns skies hazy,
reducing visibility and can result in poor air quality.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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