[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N28W to 05N29W and
is moving W at around 25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 31W and 36W.
Satellite imagery depicts a total precipitable water surge in
conjunction with this wave.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N49W to 03N50W. This
wave is moving W around 25 kt. This wave is well defined in model
700 and 850 mb fields and coincides with an inverted-V signature
in total precipitable water data. At this time, the wave is
surrounded by Saharan dust which is inhibiting almost all of the
deep convection in the vicinity of this wave, except for an area
of scattered moderate convection near the southern tip of the wave
from 04N to 06N between 47W and 52W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending
from 19N67W to 04N68W, moving westward around 30 knots. This wave
displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in total
precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate
convection associated with the wave is noted over Venezuela, while
Saharan dust surrounding the northern portion of the wave is
inhibiting convection over the Caribbean.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec near 18N94W to over the EPAC waters near 10N95W. Total
precipitable water satellite imagery shows the north side of this
wave has only limited moisture to work with. Accordingly,
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection associated with
this wave lies primarily over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 14N to
17N between 93W and 96W. This wave will continue moving W across
southern Mexico today and support the formation of showers and
thunderstorms along the coast of Mexico to the W of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW over the Atlantic Ocean from
Mauritania on the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 17N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N31W to 05N47W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is observed within 90 nm of a line from 08N13W to 05N25W and from
00N to 04N between 36W and 38W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low centered near 30N87W
over the northeastern Gulf to near 27N89W. Scattered moderate
convection is found along and up to 60 nm E of the trough axis.
The low and trough will gradually shift W toward Louisiana today
and weaken.

The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a weak
high pressure ridge extending W from the Atlantic. The ridge is
producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow outside of
thunderstorms and seas of 1-3 ft over the eastern half of the
Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3-5 ft over
the western half of the Gulf. This weak high pressure pattern
will change little through mid- week. A surface trough will emerge
off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Thu, enhancing
nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through this period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and
central America. Please see the Tropical Waves section for
details. Fresh to strong winds are likely occurring across the
south- central Caribbean south of 14N between 70W and 78W, while
an overnight scatterometer pass indicated that mainly moderate to
fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the basin S of 18N.
Light to gentle winds are noted over the NW Caribbean. A surface
ridge will remain north and northeast of the Caribbean and
Tropical N Atlantic waters through the next few days. The fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean will gradually
diminish through Tue, before strengthening again on Wed.

Convection continues to intermittently flare up over the SW
Caribbean mainly in the vicinity of the monsoon trough, which is
just north of Panama along 09N-10N. An upper-level low, currently
over the Cayman Islands, will drift westward across the NW
Caribbean through today, and will enhance convection primarily
over land areas across the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the waters between the coast
of West Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details. A surface trough extends from
a 1014 mb low centered near 30N68W to 25N67W. Another surface
trough extends from 30N59W to 28N64W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of a line from 27N64W to 25N67W to
25N76W, and from 24N to 31N between 57W and 64W.

An upper low is centered near 29N51W while its surface reflection
in the form of a surface trough extends from 32N50W to 28N52W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm of either
side of the trough axis.

Surface high pressure located NW of the Azores is in control of
the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic discussion
waters with generally fair weather. Moderate to fresh tradewinds
cover the central and eastern discussion waters S of 22N, while
gentle to moderate winds cover the waters from 22N to 32N E of
60W.

GOES-16 RGB Geocolor imagery continues to show an extensive area
of African dust that extends from the west coast of Africa to the
northeastern Caribbean. The Saharan dust occasionally obscures
sky conditions near the Caribbean islands. The dust turns skies
hazy, reducing visibility and can result in poor air quality.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAM/Latto
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