[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave has an axis extending from 15N27W to 04N28W and
is moving W at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 08N between 21W and 35W. A total precipitable
water surge is noted within this wave.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 18N46W to 04N48W. This
wave is moving W at around 15-20 kt. This wave is well defined in
model 700 and 850 mb fields and coincides with an inverted-V
signature in total precipitable water data. At this time, the
wave is surrounded by Saharan dust which is inhibiting deep
convection.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 20N65W to 05N65W,
moving westward at 15-20 knots. This wave is clearly defined with
an inverted-V signature evident in visible satellite imagery.
Scattered moderate convection prevails across the portion of the
wave over South America, while Saharan dust surrounds the
northern portion of the wave inhibiting convection. Tropical
moisture associated with this feature will continue to spread west
over the southeast and south-central Caribbean, well ahead of the
actual wave axis.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from the Yucatan Peninsula
into the EPAC waters near 07N91W. Infrared satellite imagery as
well as total precipitable water data confirm the location of this
wave. The wave will continue moving across southern Mexico
tonight enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of
Africa near 15N18W and extends to 11N23W. The ITCZ extends from
06N32W to 05N46W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered showers are noted south of the ITCZ
between 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the northeastern Gulf from a 1015
mb low near 31N86W to 27N86W. Abundant cloudiness and scattered
showers and thunderstorms are associated with the low/trough
affecting mainly the waters N of 27N and E of 89W. The low will
prevail across the Florida Panhandle today with convection.

The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a weak high
pressure center located over the Atlantic. This system is
producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow and seas of 1-3 ft
over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and seas of 3-5 ft over the western half of the Gulf. This
weak high pressure pattern will change little through mid-week. A
surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
through Wed, enhancing nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through
this period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and
central America. Please see the Tropical Waves section for
details. Scatterometer data depicted fresh to strong winds across
the south-central Caribbean south of 14N between 70W and 78W,
while moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the
basin S of 18N and E of 82W. Light to gentle winds are noted over
the NW Caribbean. A surface ridge will remain north and northeast
of the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the next
few days. Fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean
will gradually diminish through Tue, before strengthening again
on Wed.

Convection continues to flare up over the SW Caribbean mainly in
the vicinity of the monsoon trough, which is just north of Panama
along 09N. An upper-level low, currently just south of central
Cuba, will drift westward across the NW Caribbean through today,
and will enhance convection across the extreme western Caribbean
waters and over land areas across the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the waters between the coast
of West Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details. A surface trough extends from
a 1014 mb low centered near 30N64W to 24N66W. Scattered showers
are from 26N to 30N between 59W and 69W. Enhanced shower activity
is expected to continue in the vicinity of the trough.

Scattered showers north of 28 between 47W-52W are associated with
an upper-level low centered near 31N50W. Surface high pressure
located NW of the Azores is in control of the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlantic discussion waters.

GOES-16 RGB Geocolor imagery continues to show an extensive area
of African dust that extends from the west coast of Africa to the
eastern Caribbean. The Saharan dust occasionally obscures sky
conditions near the Caribbean islands. The dust turns skies hazy,
reducing visibility and can result in poor air quality.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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