[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. These
conditions will continue through at least mid week. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 04N08W continuing to 01N14W. The ITCZ begins
near 01N14W and extends along 01S24W to the coast of Brazil near
03S39W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm either side of these
boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 29N90W
to 25N97W. A pre-frontal trough extends from the Florida
Panhandle to 29N85W to 28N90W. Upper level diffluence ahead of the
front support numerous heavy showers N of 28N between the Florida
Big Bend and 91W. Scattered showers are ahead also ahead of the
front over the western half of the basin, including the Bay of
Campeche where a surface trough extends from 22N95W to 18N92W. Patchy
fog continue to be reported in the northern Gulf N of 26N, ahead
and behind the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are north
of the front while moderate southerly winds prevail south of it.
The front will reach from southeast Louisiana to near Brownsville,
Texas tonight, and from the western Florida Panhandle to the
western Bay of Campeche by Mon evening where it will stall and
weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to 8 ft
will continue to follow the front tonight and Mon. Winds and seas
will diminish by Tue as a ridge develops over the southeast
United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show deep layer stable,
dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting generally
fair weather conditions. The exception is Hispaniola where a
diffluent wind environment at the mid-levels and patches of
shallow moisture support scattered to isolated showers. Strong
high pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to
strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, as
noted in latest scatterometer data. Seas are reaching 8 to 12 ft,
except near the Colombia coast where seas will be up to 16 ft. The
areal extent of the strong trade winds and associated seas will
spread westward through mid week, including the Windward Passage
and lee of Cuba. Otherwise, little change is expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored north of the area by a 1040 mb
high near 41N35W extends S across the basin. The ridge is
supporting moderate to fresh winds over most of the basin. A cold
front is expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by Tue
afternoon, followed by fresh northerly flow and building seas
north of the Bahamas, then diminish through mid week as the front
stalls and dissipates. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate to
fresh northeast winds dominate this region, except for strong
winds north of the Cape Verde islands. 8-10 ft seas could be
expected in this area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net