[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressure over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. These
conditions will continue through at least mid week. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Latest scatterometer data indicate the presence of near to gale-
force northerly winds over adjacent waters of Tampico, Mexico
following a cold front that extends from southern Alabama to
Tampico. These winds and associated building seas to 10 ft will
start to decrease late this morning. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia, Africa near 05N09W continuing to 01N18W. The ITCZ begins
near 01N18W and extends along 01S27W to the coast of Brazil near
05S36W. Scattered showers and tstms are from 0N to 05N between 0W
and 17W and from 08S to 03N between 20W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Alabama near 30N88W SW to 25N93W to
Tampico, Mexico followed by fresh to near gale-force northerly
winds, except for gale-force winds near Tampico, Mexico as shown
by latest scatterometer data. Low level moisture inflow from the
Caribbean along with a diffluent environment aloft continue to
support heavy showers and tstms over the NE Gulf N of 28N. High
moisture behind the front continue to support patchy fog N of 26N
between 91W and 95W. Vessels transiting this region should
exercise caution due to low visibility. Otherwise, scattered to
isolated showers are within 120 nm ahead of the frontal boundary.
Strong high pressure over the north Atlc continue to extends SW
across the eastern half of the Gulf, thus providing with light to
moderate E to SE winds ahead of the front. Slightly stronger winds
are noted off the Florida Panhandle likely associated with heavy
showers occurring in that region. Fresh easterly winds are also
noted in the Florida Straits. The front will reach from the
western Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche Mon
evening where it will stall and weaken until dissipating Wednesday
evening. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish later this
morning, however fresh to strong northerly winds and building
seas to 10 ft will continue to follow the front today. Winds and
seas will diminish Tue as a ridge develops over the southeast
United States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

Dry, stable conditions prevails across the basin as indicated by
GOES-16 low to upper level water vapor imagery. However, patches
of shallow moisture continue to move across western Hispaniola,
thus supporting cloudiness and possible passing showers. A strong
ridge N of the area anchored by a pair of highs extends south
across the northern half of the Caribbean, thus supporting the
continuation of fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and
central basin as indicated by latest scatterometer data. Seas
are 12 to 16 ft near the Colombia coast and 8 to 12 ft elsewhere.
Fresh to near gale-force are also occurring through the Atlc
passages and will continue through mid week. Otherwise, little
change is expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored north of the area by a pair of 1039
mb highs extends S across the basin. The ridge is supporting
fresh to strong E-NE winds over most of the basin, except over NW
forecast waters N of 24N where E-SE winds are mainly moderate. A
cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by
Tue morning with scattered to isolated showers. The front then
will stall before dissipating Thu morning. The next cold front is
forecast to enter the NW forecast waters by early Saturday
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net