[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1201 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between the strong surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean
and lower pressures over northwestern South America will continue
to support gale-force winds within 90 nm off the coast of
Colombia. These conditions will continue through at least mid
week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 06N10W and
continues to 00N20W. The ITCZ begins near 00N20W and extends to
the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm
on either side of these boundaries between 18W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 30N93W
to 27N97W. A pre-frontal trough has developed south of the Florida
Panhandle extending from 30N88W to 28N90W. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection prevails along the trough, while minimal
convection is currently related to the front. Patchy fog has been
reported in the vicinity of the front. Fresh northerly winds are
expected north of the front while moderate southerly winds will
prevail south of it. Over the remainder of the basin, a surface
ridge extends from the north Atlantic through the east and
central Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate southerly winds. The
front will reach from southeast Louisiana to near Brownsville,
Texas by tonight, and from the western Florida Panhandle to the
western Bay of Campeche by Mon evening, where it will stall and
weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to 8 ft
will continue following the front tonight and Mon. Winds and seas
will diminish by Tue as a ridge develops over the southeast United
States. This pattern will support fresh east winds by mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
about the gale-force winds expected near the coast of Colombia.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery continues to show deep layer stable,
dry air across most of the basin, which is supporting generally
fair weather conditions. Strong high pressure north of the area
continues to support fresh to strong trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean, as noted in latest scatterometer
data. Seas are reaching 8 to 12 ft, except near the Colombia coast
where seas will be up to 16 ft. The areal extent of the strong
trade winds and associated seas will spread westward through mid
week, including the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Otherwise,
little change is expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface ridging anchored north of the area by a 1044 mb
high near 42N39W extends across the basin. The ridge is
supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over most of
the basin. A surface trough extends north of Hispaniola from
24N69W to 20N72W with scattered showers mainly over the souther
portion of it. A cold front is expected to move off the northeast
Florida coast by Tue afternoon, followed by fresh northerly flow
and building seas north of the Bahamas, then diminish through mid
week as the front stalls and dissipates. Over the eastern
Atlantic, moderate to fresh northeast winds dominate this region,
except for strong winds north of the Cape Verde islands. 8-10 ft
seas could be expected in this area. These conditions will
diminish during the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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