[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These
winds are expected to be strongest during the late night and early
morning hours over the next couple of days. Please read the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 05N09W
and extends to 03N14W, where scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ begins. The ITCZ axis dips below the equator around 24W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring between the equator and
4N between 9W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A warm front is dissipating over the north-central and
northeastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are
occurring in association with this boundary, generally north of
25N between 84W-89W. Over the western portion of the area, a
surface trough has been stationary with its axis located about 120
n mi off the coast of Mexico and Texas. More significant shower
activity and a few thunderstorms are occurring near this feature,
aided by an upper-level jet. Fair weather exists across the
remainder of the area, with only isolated showers expected.
Scatterometer data and surface observations indicate that winds
are from the east and mainly in the 10-15 kt range across the
area, except in the Straits of Florida where easterly winds are
stronger. Looking ahead to the weekend, the next cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern waters by late Sunday, and
surface winds will turn southerly and southwesterly ahead of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Generally
quiet weather continue across the Caribbean. Satellite images
indicate that only patches of clouds are scattered across the
region. This fair weather is supported by widespread dry air
aloft, as evident in water vapor images. Fresh to strong trade
winds are occurring area-wide, and they are pulsing to gale force
near the coast of Colombia as described above. High pressure
ridging is forecast to become better established to the north of
the area this weekend, and a result, strong trade winds are
expected to continue east of about 80W.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A front has stalled over the western Atlantic, which enters the
discussion area near 32N67W and extends to the northeast coast of
Florida. Scattered showers are likely within about 180 n mi north
of the front. This boundary is expected to weaken later today and
Saturday. Behind the front, a strong 1035 mb high pressure center
is shifting eastward and is now located just off the mid-Atlantic
coast. A weak surface trough is producing isolated showers near
its axis, which is located from 29N63W to 24N65W. Farther east, an
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is producing a large
swath of moisture aloft from 10-20N between 25W-45W, but most of
this is only in the form of cloudiness. Otherwise, a 1039 mb high
located near 37N34W dominates the pattern and is producing a
large area of moderate to strong trade winds across most of the
east and central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
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