[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a surface ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower
pressure over northwestern South America will continue to support
winds pulsing to minimal gale-force winds near the coast of
Colombia. These winds are expected to be strongest during the late
night and early morning hours during the next few days. Please
read latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the Liberia and the Ivory
Coast near 05N09W and extends to 02N15W, where scatterometer data
indicates the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ axis dips below the equator
around 23W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring between
the equator and 3N between 9W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, westward
to 25N90W and then south-southwestward into the Bay of Campeche.
A trough lies near the coast and Texas along 96W. The latest
satellite images show multi-layer clouds with scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms exist elsewhere S of 25N between 90W-95W.
Otherwise, scattered cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring
across the remainder of the region. Looking ahead, the stationary
front will gradually dissipate this weekend. The next cold front
will move off the Texas coast by late Sunday, and then become
stationary from near the Mississippi Delta to the western Bay of
Campeche on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Mid- to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the NW
Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize.
Broken to overcast low-level clouds and possible isolated showers
are seen N of 15N and W of 83W, S of 15N between 71W-74W and over
portions of the eastern Caribbean. These clouds and showers are
moving quickly westward in strong trade wind flow.

The ongoing strong trade wind flow will continue over the south-
central Caribbean through Sunday, and nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale-force along the coast of Colombia are forecast during the
next couple of days. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected
elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea, including the north-
central passages through today. These conditions will persist
through Monday night. Strong trade winds and building seas are
forecast across the tropical waters north of 11N through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 32N69W southwestward to near
29N75W, where it becomes stationary and extends to near Stuart,
Florida. Isolated showers are occurring north of 28N west of 70W.
Similar activity lies near a surface trough that lies from 22N60W
to 29N62W. Strong high pressure is building eastward across the
region to the west of the front. Farther east, a nearly
stationary 1039 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 36N34W
with a ridge axis stretching southwestward across the central
Atlantic to the east of the front discussed above.

Looking ahead, the frontal boundary over the western Atlantic
is forecast to stall and weaken from Bermuda to southeastern
Florida later today. The remnants of the front should lift
northward across the waters on Saturday. Another cold front is
forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast by late Monday.
Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected to continue along
the northern coast of Hispaniola and near the Windward Passage
through tonight. A tightening pressure gradient should support
strong trade winds across the waters S of 23N by late Saturday.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre/Cangialosi
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net