[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a tight surface
pressure gradient between a surface ridge in the north Atlantic
Ocean, and lower pressure in northwestern South America, will
continue to support minimal gale-force winds near and along the
coast of Colombia for the next few days, during the late night and
early morning hours. Please read latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis passes through the coastal border
sections of Liberia and the Ivory Coast near 05N08W, and it
extends to 02N19W where latest scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ begins and dips to below the equator at 23W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm S of the axis
between 08W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 03Z, a stationary front extends from near Fort Myers Florida
southwestward to 25N86W, to 23N91W and to the eastern Bay of
Campeche and to inland Mexico at 19N93W. A trough just W of the
front extends from 20N93W northwestward to 22N95W. Latest
satellite imagery satellite imagery shows abundant deep layer
moisture denoted as multilayer clouds with scattered showers and
thunderstorms underneath them concentrated over the SW Gulf.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along with patches
of rain are elsewhere S of 26N between 89W-94W. Isolated showers
are elsewhere over the central gulf and over some sections of the
eastern gulf.

Strong high pressure, further supported by a 1026 mb high center
over eastern Mexico near Ciudad Mante, continues to surge
southward from Texas to along the coast of Mexico and toward the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The stationary front will slowly dissipate through the upcoming
weekend. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast late
on Sunday, and then become stationary from near the Mississippi
Delta to the western Bay of Campeche on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
NW Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula, the eastern part of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and
Belize. Broken to overcast low-level clouds and possible isolated
showers are seen N of 15N and W of 83W, S of 15N between 71W-74W
and over portions of the eastern Caribbean. These clouds and
showers are moving quickly westward in strong trade wind flow.

Strong trade wind flow will continue over the south-central
Caribbean through Sun, except for nocturnal pulses to minimal
gale- force along the NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade
winds are expected elsewhere across the central Caribbean Sea,
including the north-central passages through today. These conditions
will persist through Mon night. Strong trade winds and building
seas are forecast across the tropical waters north of 11N through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 03Z, a cold front extends from near 32N71W southwestward to
near 28N77W, where it becomes stationary to inland Florida near
Stuart. Isolated showers moving westward are noted west of 71W,
and from 14N to 30N between 41W-62W. Isolated small thunderstorm
cells are within 15 nm of a line from 22N52W to 26N53W to 29N53W.
This activity is being aided by broad central Atlantic mid to
upper level trough.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between
Africa and the southeastern United States. A nearly stationary
1041 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 36N35W with a ridge
axis stretching southwestward to 32N52W and to near 31N62W. High
pressure covers the area E of the front, while a new area of
strong high pressure is building across the far northern boundary
of the NW waters in the wake of the cold front. A surface trough
that recently formed along the NE Florida will lift northward
today.

The aforementioned cold front will shift eastward and stall from
Bermuda to SE Florida early today. Remnants of the front will
lift northward across the waters that are to the north of the
Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Another cold front will move off
the NE Florida coast late on Mon. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds are expected to continue along the northern coast of
Hispaniola and the Atlantic Ocean approach to the Windward Passage
through Friday. A tightening pressure gradient then will support
strong trade winds across all the waters S of 23N by late Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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