[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
between a ridge over the north Atlantic Ocean and lower pressure
over northwestern South America will continue to support winds
pulsing to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia. These
winds are expected to be strongest during the late night and
early morning hours over the next couple of days. Please read
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic waters near 05N09W
and extends to 01N18W, where scatterometer data indicates the
ITCZ begins continuing to 05S34W. Numerous heavy showers are
near the Gulf of Guinea N of the Equator E of 3E. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 4S to 09S between 24W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front is dissipating over the northern Florida Peninsula,
however there is no convection associated with it. Weak surface
ridging is across the basin providing moderate return winds E of
90W and light to gentle winds W of 90W. A weakness in the ridge
is analyzed as a surface trough along 28N95W to the central Bay
of Campeche. The trough is supporting scattered showers W of 90W
while upper level diffluence supports scattered showers in the
NE Gulf. Looking ahead to the weekend, the next cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern waters by late Sunday, and
surface winds will turn southerly and southwesterly ahead of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia. Generally
quiet weather continue across the Caribbean. Satellite images
indicate that only patches of clouds are scattered across the
region. This fair weather is supported by widespread dry air
aloft, as evident in water vapor images. Fresh to strong trade
winds are occurring mainly in the central basin pulsing to gale
force near the coast of Colombia as described in the special
features section. High pressure ridging is forecast to become
better established to the north of the area this weekend, and a
result, strong trade winds are expected to continue east of
about 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is in the SW N Atlantic, which enters the
discussion area near 30N70W and extends to the northeast coast
of Florida. Isolated showers are likely within about 90 n mi
either side of the front. This boundary is expected to weaken
later today and Saturday. Behind the front, a strong 1035 mb
high pressure center is shifting eastward and is now located
just off the mid-Atlantic coast. A weak surface trough is
producing isolated showers near its axis, which is located from
29N63W to 24N65W. Farther east, an upper- level trough over the
central Atlantic is producing a large swath of moisture aloft
from 10-20N between 25W-45W, but most of this is only in the
form of cloudiness. Otherwise, a 1039 mb high located near
37N34W dominates the pattern and is producing a large area of
moderate to strong trade winds across most of the east and
central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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