[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force NE winds are forecast from 11N to 13N between 74W and
76W, in the waters that are off the coast of Colombia, from now
until the middle of the morning, today, on Monday. Strong to
near gale force trade winds will prevail across the Central
Caribbean through Friday, increasing to gale force along the NW
coast of Colombia, from the nighttime hours until the middle of
each morning, before diminishing. Please read the High Seas
forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 02N30W
01N38W, and to the Equator between 40W and 41W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N southward
between 10W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front passes through the coastal plains of SW Louisiana
along 93W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 28N94W in
the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front continues from the 1012 mb low
pressure center, to 23N95W, and to the coast of Mexico near
20N97W. The stationary front curves northwestward, and inland in
Mexico, to 25N100W, and 28N104W. Broken to overcast low level
clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico
from 92W westward.

Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation, but
remnant widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers,
are in the waters from the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula to 25N between 86W and 90W. Broken to overcast low level
clouds and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere between 85W
and 92W.

An upper level disturbance will re-energize the current warm
front/stationary front early on Monday. The front will move
eastward, before stalling again from the mouth of the Mississippi
River to north of Veracruz Mexico on Tuesday. The front will move
northward early on Wednesday, before re-energizing again late on
Wednesday, and moving off the Texas coast. Strong to near gale
force northerly winds will follow the front across the western
Gulf of Mexico waters late on Wednesday, increasing to minimal
gale force along the Mexican coast near Tampico on Wednesday
night. These minimal gale-force wind conditions will shift
southward along the Mexican coast near Veracruz on Thursday.
The front will sweep southeast of the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broken low level clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 75 nm on either side of the line that runs from 17N77W to
15N70W to 13N62W to 14N59W. Other similar clouds and possible
rainshowers are from the line 16N60W to 17N70W, south of 20N
between 60W and Hispaniola. 24-hour rainfall totals that are
listed for the period that ended at 31/0000 UTC, according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.13 in Guadeloupe, and 0.04 in
Curacao.

Strong to near gale-force trade winds will prevail across the
central Caribbean Sea through Friday, increasing to gale-force
along the NW coast of Colombia, from the nighttime hours until the
middle of each morning, before diminishing. Locally strong
nocturnal trade winds are forecast across the western Gulf of
Honduras through Tuesday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
expected elsewhere through Friday. A cold front will move through
the Yucatan Channel early on Friday, before stalling from central
Cuba to northern Belize on Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N24W,
curving to 26N27W and 21N33W. A dissipating stationary front
continues from 21N33W to 16N46W, and to 14N62W just to the west of
Saint Lucia. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 28N northward between 20W and 24W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that
runs from 28N23W to 20N36W to 14N47W to 13N60W.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N49W to
31N60W to 32N66W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues
from 32N66W beyond 33N70W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and rainshowers are from 30N northward from 40W westward. 24-hour
rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at
31/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.46 in
Bermuda.

A surface ridge, that is along 28N, will dissipate overnight,
as a cold front moves through the central Atlantic Ocean to the
east of the region. High pressure will build NE of the area in
the wake of the front, and the ridge again will become re-
established along 28N for Tuesday and Wednesday. This pattern
will continue to support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds
north of Haiti near the approaches to the Windward Passage through
the middle of the week. A second front will move off the NE
Florida coast late on Thursday, and reach from Bermuda to central
Cuba by late Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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