[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
558 AM EST Mon Dec 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the week. Gale
force winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia mainly during
overnight and early morning hours through mid week. Please refer
to the High Seas forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 04N07W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N40W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are observed
within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 10W and
18W. Scattered moderate convection from 03N to 07N between 25W and
38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Platforms across the northwest Gulf are reporting areas of fog,
with visibilities varying widely from 1 nm up to 6 nm. Satellite
imagery indicates fog is likely also in place over the northeast
Gulf, where relatively warmer moist air is flowing northward
across cooler shelf waters. Dense fog advisories are in effect
into the morning for coastal waters from the Florida Big Bend
region to southeast Louisiana, as well as over Texas nearshore
waters.

The fog covers much of the northern Gulf east of a frontal
boundary currently stalled from the Sabine Pass to south of
Tampico Mexico. The front will drift east through early Tue, then
stall again late Tue from Mobile Bay to Tampico, before reversing
course and moving north of the area as a warm front through mid
week. The front will again change direction and move back into the
NW Gulf Thu as an upper disturbance moves into the southern
Plains. Strong winds will follow the front as it sweeps SE of the
Gulf through early Fri, with minimal gales possible off Veracruz
Mexico by late Fri. Winds and seas will diminish starting Fri
night as high pressure builds across the Gulf in the wake of the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A scatterometer pass from around 02 UTC confirmed gale force
winds off the central coast of Colombia. Seas are at least 10 to
13 ft in the area of gales, and 7 to 10 ft elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean. No significant convection is
noted at this time anywhere across the basin.

High pressure north of the area will support strong to near gale
force trade winds across the central Caribbean through Fri,
pulsing to gale force along the NW coast of Colombia each night
through the middle of each morning before diminishing. Locally
strong nocturnal trades are forecast across the western Gulf of
Honduras and into the Windward Passage through Tue night.
Moderate to fresh trades expected elsewhere into Fri. A cold
front will move through the Yucatan Channel early Fri, before
stalling from central Cuba to northern Belize Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W, ridging along 28N anchored by 1025 mb high pressure
near 27N67W. The ridge is maintaining generally light to gentle to
winds north of 24N, with seas 5 to 7 ft in open waters outside of
the Bahamas. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds are pulsing
north of Haiti and through the Turks and Caicos and the approaches
to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the ridge will
dissipate through the morning as a cold front moves through the
central Atlc east of the region. High pressure will build NE of
the area in the wake of the front, and the ridge will again become
re- established along 28N Tue and Wed. This pattern will continue
to support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds north of Haiti
near the approaches to the Windward Passage through mid week. A
second front will move off the NE Florida coast late Thu, and
reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Fri.

Farther east, a scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
active north of 30N between 45W and 55W, along an approaching cold
front, moving southward out of the central Atlantic. Recent
altimeter satellite passes along with buoy observations confirmed
a large area of 8 to 12 ft seas as far south as 08N. This is
primarily due to long period NW swell, but also includes a
secondary component of shorter period trade wind swell south of
20N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are reaching the Atlantic passages of the
Leeward and Windward Islands. The swell will gradually subside
over the next couple of days, just ahead of the cold front moving
into the waters north of 24N between 35W and 55W. Strong winds
will likely accompany the front in this region, maintaining seas
of 8 to 12 ft along with persistent NW swell.

Over the eastern north Atlantic, modest trade wind convergence in
the lower levels of the atmosphere along with favorable dynamics
aloft are together supporting scattered moderate to isolated
strong thunderstorm activity along the monsoon trough. Farther
north, a cold front is passing eastward over the waters north of
20N anchored by a 1011 mb low pressure area near the Azores
Islands. NW swell of mainly 8 to 12 ft is evident over most of the
waters north of 15N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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