[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the
Central Caribbean through Fri, increasing to gale force along the
NW coast of Colombia late each night through the middle of each
morning, before diminishing. Please read the High Seas forecast
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ starts at the
coast of Liberia near 08N13W, and it goes to 05N20W, 02N30W,
02N37W, crossing the Equator along 42W, to 01S46W at the coast of
Brazil, to 02S52W in Brazil. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 07N southward between 10W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N90W to a 1014
mb low near 26N95W to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W.
Although there is no significant convection associated with the
front, dense fog continue to be reported west of the front, over
the NW Gulf waters all the way south to the western Bay of
Campeche. Fresh to strong winds are also west of the front S of
24N and will prevail through early Mon as the front drift W
towards the coast of Texas while weakening. Winds ahead of the
stationary front are gentle to moderate from the SE. However,
winds are forecast to become locally fresh by early Mon ahead of
the next cold front coming off Texas near 0900 UTC.

The front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to Veracruz
Mexico on Tue and stall from the western Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz on Tue night through Wed morning. The front will move E
again on Wed night reaching a position from the Florida Big Bend
to the Bay of Campeche on Thu, and move E of the area on Thu
night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are forecast to
develop across the western gulf waters on Tue night, increasing
to minimal gale force along the Mexican coast near Tampico on Wed
night. These minimal gale conditions will shift S along the
Mexican coast near Veracruz on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the
Central Caribbean Sea through Friday, increasing to gale force
along the NW coast of Colombia each night through the middle of
each morning, before diminishing. Locally strong nocturnal trade
winds are forecast across the western Gulf of Honduras through
Tuesday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
elsewhere through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high centered near 27N60W covers the waters of the SW N
Atlc and central Atlc supporting fair weather and light to gentle
winds N of 22N W of 43W. South of 22N, the gradient slightly
tightens with lower pressure in the Caribbean, thus supporting
moderate to fresh NE to E winds. Over the NE waters, a cold front
extends from 30N26W to 24N30W to 20N35W where it stalls and starts
to dissipate all the way to the central Lesser Antilles. Isolated
showers and tstms are within 90 nm east of the front mainly north
of of 29N.

A surface ridge, that extends from 27N65W to NE Florida, will
shift S, allowing a weak cold front to move slowly into the
northern waters. The front will stall and dissipate gradually,
from 28N65W to 31N74W through Monday night. Moderate to locally
fresh southerly wind flow will set up N of the ridge on Tuesday,
ahead of a second cold front moving off the N Florida coast early
on Wednesday. This second front will be reinforced on Thursday
with locally strong southwest wind flow ahead of the front. This
second front will reach from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas on
Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
nr/mn/mt
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