[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301704
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1204 PM EST Sun Dec 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...
Strong to near gale force trade winds will prevail across the
Central Caribbean through Fri, increasing to gale force along the
NW coast of Colombia late each night through the middle of each
morning before diminishing. Please refer to the High Seas forecast
product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from the coast of Africa near 07N13W to 06N20W to
01N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 210 nm either side of the ITCZ between 13W
and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N90W to a 1014
mb low near 26N95W to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W.
Although there is no significant convection associated with the
front, dense fog continue to be reported west of the front, over
the NW Gulf waters all the way south to the western Bay of
Campeche. Fresh to strong winds are also west of the front S of
24N and will prevail through early Mon as the front drift W
towards the coast of Texas while weakening. Winds ahead of the
stationary front are gentle to moderate from the SE. However,
winds are forecast to become locally fresh by early Mon ahead of
the next cold front coming off Texas near 0900 UTC.

The front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to Veracruz
Mexico on Tue and stall from the western Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz on Tue night through Wed morning. The front will move E
again on Wed night reaching a position from the Florida Big Bend
to the Bay of Campeche on Thu, and move E of the area on Thu
night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are forecast to
develop across the western gulf waters on Tue night, increasing
to minimal gale force along the Mexican coast near Tampico on Wed
night. These minimal gale conditions will shift S along the
Mexican coast near Veracruz on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the special features section for details about the Gale
Warning for the south-central Caribbean. Locally strong nocturnal
trades are forecast across the western Gulf of Honduras through
Tue night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades expected elsewhere
through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high centered near 27N60W covers the waters of the SW N
Atlc and central Atlc supporting fair weather and light to gentle
winds N of 22N W of 43W. South of 22N, the gradient slightly
tightens with lower pressure in the Caribbean, thus supporting
moderate to fresh NE to E winds. Over the NE waters, a cold front
extends from 30N26W to 24N30W to 20N35W where it stalls and starts
to dissipate all the way to the central Lesser Antilles. Isolated
showers and tstms are within 90 nm east of the front mainly north
of of 29N.

The aforementioned ridge will shift S today allowing a weak cold
front to move slowly into the northern waters. The front will
stall and gradually dissipate from 28N65W to 31N74W through Mon
night. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will set up N of
the ridge on Tue ahead of a second cold front moving off the N
Florida coast early Wed. This second front will be reinforced on
Thu with locally strong southwest flow ahead of the front. This
second front will reach from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas on
Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net