[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Dec 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE winds are forecast during the nighttime hours each
night through at least Wednesday night into Thursday morning off
the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, with
sea heights ranging from 9 to 14 feet. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 03N44W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 30W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from near Tampa Florida to 28N90W to Beaumont
Texas. No significant convection is noted in the area. Although
some patchy dense fog is occurring over land along portions of
the Texas and western Louisiana coasts, the Gulf of Mexico appears
to be free of dense fog. Isolated showers are possible in the
southwest Gulf of Mexico south of 23N and west of 90W.

The warm front will continue to lift N and become diffuse.
Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate later today,
increasing to fresh to strong N of 23N Wed ahead of a cold front.
The cold front will move off Texas Thu, stalling and becoming
diffuse through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from SE Cuba near 21N78W to 16N81W. The
trough is connected to a warm front that extends from eastern Cuba
through the central Bahamas and eastward into the Atlantic. A
second surface trough is along 86W from 17N to southwestern
Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 17N-20N from
84W westward. Isolated showers are from 17N-20N between 79W-82W.
Some isolated showers are farther east in the Caribbean Sea,
including near Puerto Rico.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue in the NW Caribbean
through early this morning. Strong trade winds will continue
across the S central Caribbean through Fri night, increasing to
minimal gale force along the NW coast of Colombia each night, and
to possible strong gale force Fri night and Sat night. Easterly
winds will increase across the entire region Wed through Sat night
as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to 28N76W and continues as
stationary from 28N76W to near Melbourne Florida to Tampa Florida.
Isolated showers are possible along and near the cold front.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N41W to
28N50W, and to 26N60W. The front becomes stationary from 26N60W to
24N67W and 24N70W. The front is warm from 24N70W to the central
Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N78W. Scattered showers are noted
near the front from 55W westward, including near the central
Bahamas.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper cyclonic circulation center and
trough are supporting a surface trough that is from 400 nm or
more to the west of Africa, from 20N northward. Rainshowers are
possible to the north and northwest of the line that passes
through 31N16W 24N23W 17N35W 14N50W 13N60W.

The weak cold front extending from 31N69W to the Treasure Coast
of Florida is stalling, and will lay down along 28N through
tonight, gradually dissipating. Moderate to fresh easterly flow
Wed will increase to fresh to strong Wed night through Fri as high
pres N of the area strengthens. Winds will diminish thereafter as
the next weak cold front drops SE into the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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