[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 PM EST Tue Dec 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE winds are forecast during the nighttime hours each
night through at least Wednesday night into Thursday morning off
the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W, with
sea heights ranging from 9 to 14 feet. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 03N23W to
03N36W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N
between 27W-38W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are from
01N-05N between 01W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends from near Tampa Florida to
28.5N89W. A weak warm front continues from 28.5N89W to near
Beaumont Texas. Isolated showers are seen north of 28N between
92W-94W. Isolated showers are possible in the southwest Gulf of
Mexico south of 25N and west of 90W. Surface high pressure over
the southeastern United States extends a ridge over the
northeastern and central Gulf of Mexico.

High pres will prevail across the forecast waters through Wed
before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move
off the Texas coast Thu. The front will stall and linger across
the NW Gulf through Sat before a reinforcing front helps push the
front eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends along the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula and Belize from Cancun to NW Honduras. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are near the coast of Belize from
16N-19N between 86W-90W. A second surface trough extends from
near 20N79W to 15N82W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 17N-20N between 80W-83W. A third
surface trough is along 68W from the Mona Passage northward into
the Atlantic. Isolated showers are noted near Puerto Rico.

Strong trade winds will prevail across the S central Caribbean
through Sat night, increasing to minimal gale force along the NW
coast of Colombia at night, and to possible strong gale force Fri
night and Sat night. Easterly winds will increase across the
entire region Wed through Sat night as strong high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 32N62W to 30N68W to 29N76W and
continues as stationary from 29N76W to near Melbourne Florida to
Tampa Florida. Isolated showers are possible along and near the
cold front.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N38W to
29N45W to 27N52W, then continues as a stationary front from 27N52W
to 26N63W to 24N70W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are
noted near the stationary front. A surface trough is along 68W
from 24N to the Mona Passage. Isolated showers are noted near
Puerto Rico. Another surface trough extends from 26N57W to 22N59W,
with isolated showers in the area.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough axis extends from
33N25W to 24N30W to 20N45W and is supporting a surface trough from
the Madeira Islands to 28N20W to 21N30W. Scattered showers are
north of 30N and east of 25W. A 1023 mb surface high is centered
near 28N37W.

The weak front extending from 31N66W to 29N76W to central Florida
will stall along 28N through tonight, where it will gradually
dissipate. High pres will build in the wake of the front and
prevail through the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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