[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EST Tue Dec 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE winds are forecast: for tonight and Tuesday morning,
and for the same time period from Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, and from Wednesday night into Thursday morning, off the
coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W, with sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N10W, and to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to
03N23W, to 04N30W, and 03N41W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N southward between 27W and
37W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, reaching the east
coast of Florida near 28N81W, to 27N90W in the north central Gulf
of Mexico. The front becomes warm at 27N90W, and it continues to
28N94W, and to 29N97W in the Texas coastal plains. Rainshowers are
possible from 26N northward, and in the SW corner of the area from
24N southward from 90W westward.

The current frontal boundary will lift N and become diffuse
tonight. Moderate to fresh return wind flow will dominate on
Tuesday, increasing to fresh to strong N of 23N on Wednesday,
ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move off Texas on
Thursday, stalling and becoming diffuse through the upcoming
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from SE Cuba to 15N80W. The trough is
connected to the warm front that is moving across Cuba. A second
surface trough is along 85W/86W from southern Nicaragua across
Honduras to 17N in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N
northward from 84W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea,
but comparatively more concentrated in the area that is from 76W
eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period
that ended at 25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
are 0.19 in Guadeloupe, and 0.11 in Curacao.

Fresh to locally strong NE wind flow will continue in the
NW Caribbean Sea through this evening. Strong trade winds will
continue across the S central Caribbean Sea through Friday night,
increasing to minimal gale force along the NW coast of Colombia
at night, and to possible strong gale force on Friday night and
Saturday night. Easterly winds will increase across the entire
region from Wednesday through Saturday night, as strong high
pressure builds in the western Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N71W, beyond the eastern coast of
Florida near 28N81W. Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of
the cold front. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
are 0.02 in Bermuda.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N43W to
28N50W, and to 26N60W. The front becomes stationary from 26N60W
to 24N67W and 24N71W. The front is warm from 24N71W to 23N77W.
Rainshowers are possible to the north and northwest of the line
that passes through 31N36W to 26N50W 24N60W, to the Windward
Passage.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper cyclonic circulation center and
trough are supporting a surface trough that is from 400 nm or
more to the west of Africa, from 20N northward. Rainshowers are
possible to the north and northwest of the line that passes
through 31N16W 24N23W 17N35W 14N50W 13N60W.

The current Atlantic Ocean cold front will end up along 28N
through Tuesday night, gradually dissipating. Moderate to fresh
easterly wind flow on Wednesday will increase to fresh to strong
from Wednesday night through Friday, as high pressure N of the
area strengthens. The wind speeds will diminish thereafter
as the next weak cold front attempts to drop SE into the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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