[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST Mon Dec 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE winds are forecast: for tonight and tomorrow
morning/early afternoon of Tuesday, and for the same time period
from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning/early afternoon, off
the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W, with
sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, and to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to
02N28W, to 03N35W, crossing the Equator along 40W, to the coast
of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
are from 05N to 06N between 30W and 33W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to the
Florida Big Bend near 30N83W to 28N88W to 28N91W. It continues as
a stationary front from 28N91W to 28N95W. It continues as a warm
front from 28N95W to a 1022 mb surface low along the coast of
Texas near Padre Island. A stationary front extends from the
surface low westward across northern Mexico to 26N100W to 30N107W.
No significant shower activity is occurring with the frontal
boundary. Further southeast, some cumulus clouds are streaming
westward just north of the west coast of Cuba to just north of the
Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers are possible in that area.

The part of the current frontal boundary that is cold is forecast
to move slightly southward tonight and become stationary, maybe
drift a little southward through Wednesday night. Fresh
southeasterly flow will develop over the entire basin Tue and Wed,
then increase to fresh to strong speeds Wed night and Thu in
advance of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast Thu
morning. Seas are expected to build mainly north of 23N and
subside Fri. Seas may reach around 10 ft in the NW Gulf on Thu
before they subside. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some
possibly strong, are expected ahead of the front. This front is
forecast to become stationary from southern Louisiana to
northeastern Mexico Thu night and Fri, where it will linger into
next weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 16.5N-18.5N between 84W-88W.
This convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence and
weak upper-level divergence in the area. Isolated showers are also
seen east of Nicaragua. Another surface trough is analyzed from
the Windward Passage to 17N77W. Isolated showers are seen near
this trough and over eastern Cuba.

Strong trade winds will continue across the S central Caribbean
Sea through Fri night, increasing to minimal gale force along the
northwest coast of Colombia at night, and to possible strong gale
force Fri night and Sat night. A trough extending from the
Windward Passage to 16N78W will weaken as it gradually moves
westward across the western Caribbean Sea through Wed. Fresh to
locally strong northeast flow will continue in the northwest
Caribbean Sea through this evening. Easterly winds will increase
across the entire region Wed through Sat night as strong high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the northwest portion of the area near 32N77W
and continues to near Jacksonville Florida to the Florida Big
Bend and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are
possibly occurring along and just ahead of the front north of 30N
and east of 80W.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front enters the area near 32N49W
and continues to 28N56W to 26N62W, continuing as a stationary
front to 23N72W, continuing as a warm front to 22N77W. Isolated
showers are possible within 120 nm of this frontal system. A
surface trough is analyzed from 24N67W to 19N68W. Isolated showers
are possible near the trough.

A large eastern Atlantic Ocen mid-upper cyclonic circulation
center is near 32N24W. The cyclonic center and associated mid-
upper trough are moving northward. These features are supporting
a surface trough from 32N23W to 30N24W to 24N28W to 18N38W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 27N between 19W-
24W. East of the upper trough, a band of thick mid and high level
clouds with scattered showers is seen within 120 nm of a line
extending from 13N29W to 21N16W. This band continues just inland
over Western Sahara and Morocco, but is over water again north of
27N, east of 14W.

A stationary front extends from near 25N65W to 23N71W, where it
becomes a warm front to near 23N78W. The warm front will lift
northward through Tue night while weakening. The stationary
portion will also weaken through Tue night. Easterly winds will
increase across the entire region Wed and Thu as strong high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Seas will build with
these winds over most sections of the area. Winds will diminish
and seas will subside north of 22N Fri through Sat night as the
gradient associated with the high weakens in response to a cold
front that approaches from the northwest.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ja/ah/mt
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