[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 PM EST Mon Dec 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are forecast during the nighttime hours each
night through at least Tuesday night off the coast of Colombia
from 11N-13N between 73W-76W with seas of 9 to 13 ft. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W and extends to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W
to 03N25W to 02N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are south of 07N between 13W and the
coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from Jacksonville Florida to the
Florida Big Bend near 30N83W to 28N88W to 28N91W. It continues as
a stationary front from 28N91W to 28N95W. It continues as a warm
front from 28N95W to a 1022 mb surface low along the coast of
Texas near Padre Island. A stationary front extends from the
surface low westward across northern Mexico to 26N100W to 30N107W.
No significant shower activity is occurring with the frontal
boundary. Further southeast, some cumulus clouds are streaming
westward just north of the west coast of Cuba to just north of the
Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers are possible in that area.

The cold front from the Florida Big Bend to 28N91W is forecast to
reach from near Tampa to near 28N87W this afternoon and become
stationary, possibly drifting a little southward through Wed
night. Fresh southeasterly flow will develop over the entire basin
Tue and Wed, then increase to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu
in advance of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast Thu
morning. Seas are expected to build mainly north of 23N and
subside Fri. This front is forecast to become stationary from
southern Louisiana to northeastern Mexico Thu night and Fri, where
it will linger into next weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 16.5N-18.5N between 84W-88W.
This convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence and
weak upper-level divergence in the area. Isolated showers are also
seen east of Nicaragua. Another surface trough is analyzed from
the Windward Passage to 17N77W. Isolated showers are seen near
this trough and over eastern Cuba.

Strong trade winds will continue across the S central Caribbean
through Fri night, pulsing to minimal gale force along the
northwest coast of Colombia at night. The trough extending from
the Windward Passage to 17N77W will slowly dissipate through this
evening. Fresh to locally strong northeast flow will continue in
the northwest Caribbean through this evening. Easterly winds will
increase across the entire region Wed through Fri as strong high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the northwest portion of the area near 32N77W
and continues to near Jacksonville Florida to the Florida Big
Bend and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are
possibly occurring along and just ahead of the front north of 30N
and east of 80W.

A central Atlantic cold front enters the area near 32N49W and
continues to 28N56W to 26N62W, continuing as a stationary front to
23N72W, continuing as a warm front to 22N77W. Isolated showers are
possible within 120 nm of this frontal system. A surface trough is
analyzed from 24N67W to 19N68W. Isolated showers are possible near
the trough.

A large eastern Atlantic mid-upper level low is near 32N24W. The
low and associated mid-upper trough is moving northward. These
features are supporting a surface trough from 32N23W to 30N24W to
24N28W to 18N38W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of
27N between 19W-24W. East of the upper trough, a band of thick
mid and high level clouds with scattered showers is seen within
120 nm of a line extending from 13N29W to 21N16W. This band
continues just inland over Western Sahara and Morocco, but is over
water again north of 27N, east of 14W.

The warm front near the central Bahamas will lift northward
through Tue night while weakening. The stationary portion of that
front will also weaken through Tue night. Easterly winds will
increase across the entire region Wed and Thu as strong high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Seas will build with
these winds over most sections of the area. Winds will diminish
and seas will subside north of 22N Fri and Fri night as the
gradient associated with the high weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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