[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST Mon Dec 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are forecast during the nighttime hours each
night through at least Tuesday night off the coast of Colombia
from 11N-13N between 73W-76W with seas of 9 to 13 ft. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 03N25W
to 01S34W to 00N43W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are south of 06N between 13W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle near
Panama City and extends to near 28N94W, where it becomes a
stationary front. The stationary front continues from 28N94W to a
1023 mb surface low just offshore Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. A
cold front extends westward from this low to 25N98W to 27N103W.
No significant shower activity is occurring with the frontal
boundary.

The weak front is gradually stalling from 29N89W to near
Brownsville Texas with the northern portion reaching the Florida
Big Bend by later today through Tue. Fresh SE flow will develop
across the entire basin Tue and Wed ahead of a cold front moving
off Texas Thu morning. That next front will stall from southern
Louisiana to NE Mexico Thu night, where it will linger into next
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the SE Bahamas to E Cuba to
19N78W. A surface trough continues from 19N78W to the east coast
of Nicaragua near 12N84W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
over the Gulf of Honduras from 16.5N-18.5N between 83.5W-88W.
Isolated showers are possible in and near the Windward Passage.

Strong trade winds will continue across the S central Caribbean
through Fri night, pulsing to minimal gale force along the NW
coast of Colombia each night. A trough extending from eastern
Cuba to Nicaragua will slowly dissipate this morning. Fresh to
locally strong NE flow will continue in the NW Caribbean through
this evening. Easterly winds will increase across the entire
region Wed through Fri as strong high pressure builds over the W
Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is moving through the central and western sections
of the Atlantic Ocean, passing through 32N51W to 24N67W. The
front becomes stationary from 24N67W, extending across parts of
the SE Bahamas near 22N73W, to SE Cuba. A surface trough is along
65W/66W from 19N to 25N. Isolated showers are to the north of the
line that passes through 31N45W, to southeastern Puerto Rico.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a
surface trough that passes through 31N25W to 26N27W to 21N33W to
18N42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 27N
between 21W-24W. East of the upper trough, a band of thick mid and
high level clouds with scattered showers is seen within 120 nm of
a line extending from 11N31W to 20N18W to 26N14W to 31N14W.

The stationary front that extends from 24N67W across the SE
Bahamas to eastern Cuba will weaken and drift NW Mon and Tue.
Easterly winds will increase across the W Atlantic Wed and Thu as
strong high pressure builds over the region. Winds will diminish
N of 22N Fri and Fri night as the high weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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