[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Sun Dec 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE NE winds are expected during the time period that runs
from the late night/early morning hours until the early afternoon,
for the next few days, along the coast of Colombia, from 10.5N to
12N between 74W and 77W. Expect also, sea heights ranging from 10
feet to 13 feet in that same area. Please, read the latest High
Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 04N22W,
01N37W, crossing the Equator along 42W, to the coast of Brazil
near 01S45W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 02N to 05S between 27W and 40W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico. As of 1500 UTC,
the front passes through Lake Charles Louisiana and extends to
near 28.5N95.5W to Corpus Christi Texas, westward to Laredo
Texas, then northwestward over northern Mexico. The front does
not contain any significant precipitation. Light to gentle N
winds are immediately behind the front, with moderate N winds
further behind the front over Texas. A 1026 mb high is over
northern Florida. Surface ridging extends over the eastern and
central Gulf. A surface trough is along 92/93W from 18N-22N.
Cloud cover is present in the Bay of Campeche with no
significant shower activity.

The current cold front will stall and weaken from the Florida Big
Bend to southern Texas on Monday and Tuesday. Fresh SE wind flow
will develop across the entire basin on Tuesday and Wednesday,
ahead of a cold front that will be moving off Texas on Thursday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A warm front extends from the SE Bahamas near 22N73W to just
south of SE Cuba near 19N76W. A surface trough extends from
19N76W to western Jamaica to 14N81W. Isolated showers are seen
along and west of the surface trough from 13N-20N, mainly east
of 83W. Another surface trough extends from 23N67W to the
eastern Dominican Republic to 15N70W. A distinct maximum in low-
level moisture accompanies this surface trough, as depicted by
the CIRA layered precipitable water product. Isolated showers
are noted over portions of the Dominican Republic and near the
ABC Islands.

Strong trade winds will continue across the south central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday night, increasing to minimal gale
force along the NW coast of Colombia at night. A frontal trough
extending from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua will dissipate slowly
tonight. Fresh NE wind flow will continue in the NW Caribbean Sea
through Monday night. Easterly winds will increase across the
entire region on Wednesday and Thursday, as strong high pressure
builds across the W Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 32N59W to
26N67W, then continues as a stationary front to the SE Bahamas
near 22N73W, then continues as a warm front to eastern Cuba near
20N75.5W. No significant convective activity is seen near the
front. A surface trough extends from 23N67W to the eastern
Dominican Republic. Isolated showers are possible over portions
of the Dominican Republic. To the east, a surface trough extends
from 31N30W to 26N33W to 21N42W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen north of 25N between 25W-32W.

An upper-level trough extends its axis from near 32N32W to 20N34W
to 15N45W to 12N67W. Strong mid to upper level SW winds are
transporting mid-upper level moisture on the east side of this
trough axis. Moderately cold cloud tops are seen within 120 nm
either side of a line from 15N30W to 20N26W to 30N19W. Although
this is mainly due to thick layers of fast-moving medium and high
clouds, there is likely some shower activity occurring in this
area, enhanced by upper-level diffluence east of the upper
trough. A 1022 mb high is centered near 29N52W, with ridging
prevailing over the central Atlantic.

The current stationary front will weaken, and drift NW on Monday
and Tuesday. Easterly winds will increase across the entire
region on Wednesday and Thursday, as strong high pressure builds
across the W Atlantic Ocean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
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