[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232106 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM EST Sun Dec 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...Updated to Correct Timing of Gale Force Winds in Caribbean
Gale Warning...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Northeast winds to minimal gale force are expected the next few
nights, including tonight, near the coast of Colombia from 11N
to 13N between 74W and 77W, with seas ranging from 9 to 13 feet.
See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N30W to 01N40W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Numerous moderate/isolated
strong convection is seen south of 05N between 26W-37W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring elsewhere south of
06N between 25W-41W. Scattered showers are from 02N-06N between
41W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico. As of 1500 UTC,
the front passes through Lake Charles Louisiana and extends to
near 28.5N95.5W to Corpus Christi Texas, westward to Laredo
Texas, then northwestward over northern Mexico. The front does
not contain any significant precipitation. Light to gentle N
winds are immediately behind the front, with moderate N winds
further behind the front over Texas. A 1026 mb high is over
northern Florida. Surface ridging extends over the eastern and
central Gulf. A surface trough is along 92/93W from 18N-22N.
Cloud cover is present in the Bay of Campeche with no
significant shower activity.

The cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico will move eastward
through tonight, then stall and weaken from the Florida Big Bend
to southern Texas Mon and Tue. Fresh SE flow will develop across
the entire basin Tue and Wed ahead of a cold front moving off
Texas Thu morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A warm front extends from the SE Bahamas near 22N73W to just
south of SE Cuba near 19N76W. A surface trough extends from
19N76W to western Jamaica to 14N81W. Isolated showers are seen
along and west of the surface trough from 13N-20N, mainly east
of 83W. Another surface trough extends from 23N67W to the
eastern Dominican Republic to 15N70W. A distinct maximum in low-
level moisture accompanies this surface trough, as depicted by
the CIRA layered precipitable water product. Isolated showers
are noted over portions of the Dominican Republic and near the
ABC Islands.

Strong trade winds will continue across the south central
Caribbean through Thu night, increasing to minimal gale force at
night beginning Monday night along the NW coast of Colombia. The
trough that extends from eastern Cuba to east of northern
Nicaragua will slowly dissipate today. Fresh NE flow will
continue over the NW Caribbean through Mon night. Easterly winds
will increase across the entire region Wed and Thu as strong
high pressure builds over the W Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 32N59W to
26N67W, then continues as a stationary front to the SE Bahamas
near 22N73W, then continues as a warm front to eastern Cuba near
20N75.5W. No significant convective activity is seen near the
front. A surface trough extends from 23N67W to the eastern
Dominican Republic. Isolated showers are possible over portions
of the Dominican Republic. To the east, a surface trough extends
from 31N30W to 26N33W to 21N42W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen north of 25N between 25W-32W.

An upper-level trough extends its axis from near 32N32W to 20N34W
to 15N45W to 12N67W. Strong mid to upper level SW winds are
transporting mid-upper level moisture on the east side of this
trough axis. Moderately cold cloud tops are seen within 120 nm
either side of a line from 15N30W to 20N26W to 30N19W. Although
this is mainly due to thick layers of fast-moving medium and high
clouds, there is likely some shower activity occurring in this
area, enhanced by upper-level diffluence east of the upper
trough. A 1022 mb high is centered near 29N52W, with ridging
prevailing over the central Atlantic.

A front extending from 27N65W across the SE Bahamas to eastern
Cuba will weaken and drift NW Mon and Tue. Easterly winds will
increase across the W Atlantic Wed and Thu as strong high
pressure builds over the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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