[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EST Mon Dec 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The forecast consists of: GALE-FORCE NE to E winds, from sunset
until sunrise of the next morning, starting now, and continuing in
that way, for the next 48 hours. The GALE-FORCE wind speeds will
be experienced from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W during each
period. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to 12 feet, also.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast product under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 04N23W,
crossing the Equator along 31W, to 01S34W, to the Equator again
along 43W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 02N to 06S between 28W and 37W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 04N22W,
01N37W, crossing the Equator along 42W, to the coast of Brazil
near 01S45W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 02N to 05S between 27W and 40W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the SE corner of Mississippi, through
extreme SE Louisiana, to 28N94W in the NW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. The front becomes stationary, from 28N94W, across the Deep
South of Texas to 26N100W in Mexico. The stationary front curves
northwestward to 31N108W in north central interior Mexico. Upper
level SW wind flow is moving across the entire Gulf of Mexico.
Rainshowers are possible along and to the northwest of the frontal
boundary.

The current cold front is stalling gradually. The northern part of
the front will be reaching from the Florida Big Bend to southern
Texas on Monday and Tuesday. Fresh SE wind flow will develop
across the entire basin on Tuesday and Wednesday, ahead of a cold
front that will be moving off Texas on Thursday morning. That next
front will stall across the Texas coastal waters on Friday,
gradually retreating inland through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the SE Bahamas to SE Cuba.
A surface trough continues from SE Cuba, just to the west of,
curving toward the SE coast of Nicaragua. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 16N to 20N
between 82W and 87W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from 80W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, to the east of the
line that runs from Jamaica to the central coastal sections of
Nicaragua. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 24/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.02 in Curacao.

Strong trade winds will continue across the south central
Caribbean Sea through Friday night, increasing to minimal gale
force along the NW coast of Colombia at night. A frontal trough,
extending from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua, will dissipate slowly
tonight. Fresh NE wind flow will continue in the NW Caribbean Sea
through Monday night. Easterly winds will increase across the
entire region from Wednesday through Friday, as strong high
pressure builds in the W Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is moving through the central and western sections of
the Atlantic Ocean, passing through 31N56W to 25N67W. The front
becomes stationary from 25N67W, across parts of the SE Bahamas
near 23N74W, to SE Cuba. A surface trough is along 64W/66W from
19N to 25N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the north of the
line that passes through 31N46W, to 24N55W, to the Mona Passage.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 24/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.04 in
Bermuda.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a
surface trough, that is passing through 31N26W to 23N30W to
18N43W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 26N northward between 20W and 30W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere, in broken low level clouds, to the north of
the line that passes through 31N20W to 22N30W to 17N40W to 15N50W
to 14N60W.

The current stationary front will weaken, and drift NW on Monday
and Tuesday. Easterly winds will increase across the entire region
on Wednesday and Thursday, as strong high pressure builds across
the W Atlantic Ocean. The wind speeds will diminish N of 22N on
Friday and Friday night as the high weakens.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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