[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Northeast gale-force winds are forecast to pulse this weekend at
night from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W beginning this evening,
with seas 9 to 15 feet in east swell. See the latest High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N13W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 05N22W to
00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-06N
between 30W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the eastern and central Gulf of
Mexico, with two 1021 mb highs present. One of the highs is over
the Florida Panhandle, and the other is near the north coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. A 1005 mb low is centered over the Red
River Valley near the Texas/Oklahoma border. A warm front extends
southeast from the low to near Beaumont Texas. No precipitation
is noted over the Gulf at this time. Winds and seas in the eastern
Gulf will continue to subside today. High pressure will move
slightly eastward today toward the Florida Big Bend. By Monday, a
surface ridge will extend from Florida's Big Bend to SE Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N75W to
western Jamaica near 18N77W to the central coast of Costa Rica.
Broken to overcast clouds and isolated showers are seen along the
front and extending to 180 nm west of the front. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are seen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, with isolated showers near Trinidad and the SE Caribbean.
The central Caribbean between 67W-74W is free of any significant
shower activity, with partly cloudy skies.

Strong to near gale-force trades will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through Wednesday night, increasing to gale-
force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours
beginning tonight. The stationary front over the west Caribbean
will gradually dissipate through Sunday. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds will prevail W of the front, except near gale
force along the coast of Nicaragua today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 32N67W to the
SE Bahamas near 22N73W to E Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers
are observed within 30 nm ahead and 120 nm behind the front. A
recent scatterometer pass shows strong winds north of 27N between
64W-76W, but gales are no longer occurring in the region. To the
east, a 1017 mb surface low is near 31N35W, with a weakening cold
front extending from the low to 28N38W. Isolated showers are near
the weakening front. Two surface troughs are analyzed over the
Atlantic. One is along 59/60W from 15N-23N and contains only
isolated showers. The other trough extends from 21N37W to 27N34W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and
east of this trough from 21N-28N between 32W-36W. Convection
associated with this trough is being enhanced by an upper-level
trough that extends its axis from 32N37W to 20N40W to 15N60W.

The cold front over the western Atlantic will stall tonight from
27N65W to the Windward Passage. Strong W winds west of the front
will diminish to fresh this afternoon. Winds and seas will then
continue to diminish across the region tonight into Sunday.
Remnants of the front will drift NW Mon and Tue. Moderate to fresh
easterlies are expected S of 28N Tue and Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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