[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221111
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
611 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Westerly winds at 30 to 40 kt are depicted in scatterometer data
in the western Atlantic behind a cold front that currently extends
from 31N69W to 21N75W. Expect these winds to continue today with
seas as high as 12 to 18 feet in west swell. Near gale to gale
force southwesterly flow will prevail west of the front through
the morning today then diminish by the afternoon. See the latest
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Northeast gale-force winds are forecast to pulse this weekend
from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W beginning tonight, with seas
7 to 11 feet in east swell. See the latest High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N17W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and north of the ITCZ between 30W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered near 25N92W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds
prevail across the basin. High pressure will continue moving
eastward today, then move across the Florida Panhandle on Sunday,
leaving a ridge from the Florida Big Bend to SE Texas on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal system extends from the western Atlantic into eastern
Cuba and enters the west Caribbean as a stationary front from
20N76W to 10N83W. Scattered showers are noted along the front.
Fair weather prevails elsewhere.

Strong to near gale-force trades will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through next week, increasing to gale-force
along the northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours
beginning on Saturday night. The cold front over the west
Caribbean will stall from the Windward Passage to Costa Rica on
Saturday and gradually dissipate through Sunday. Strong northerly
winds will prevail west of the front, increasing to near-gale
along the coast of Nicaragua.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N69W to
21N75W. Scattered showers are observed within 75 nm east of the
front mainly north of 25N. Gale-force winds are depicted in
latest scatterometer data north of 27N and west of 70W. To the
east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N36W to 27N41W.
A pair of surface troughs are analyzed in this map. The first
extends along 59W from 16N-23N, while the second one is along 35W
from 22N-27N. Scattered showers are noted along each trough.

The cold front over the western Atlantic will stall from 27N65W
to the Windward Passage tonight. Near gale to gale force
southwesterly flow will diminish by this afternoon. Remnants of
the front will drift northwest early next week, with seas
subsiding across the region this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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