[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

Westerly winds at 30 to 40 kt are depicted in scatterometer data
in the western Atlantic behind a cold front that currently extends
from 31N71W to 21N76W. Expect these winds to continue tonight
with seas as high as 14 to 21 feet in west swell. Near gale to
gale force southwesterly flow will prevail west of the front
through Saturday morning then diminish by the afternoon. See the
latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Northeast gale-force winds are forecast to pulse this weekend
from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W beginning Saturday night, with
seas 7 to 11 feet in east swell. See the latest High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N14W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and north of the ITCZ between 20W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered over the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh
anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin. High pressure
will shift eastward across the central Gulf on Saturday, and move
across the Florida Panhandle on Sunday, leaving a ridge from the
Florida Big Bend to SE Texas on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the western Atlantic into eastern Cuba
and enters the west Caribbean near 20N78W to 10N83W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed ahead of the front affecting the
area from Jamaica to the Windward Passage.

Strong to near gale-force trades will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through next week, increasing to gale-force
along the northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours
beginning on Saturday night. The cold front over the west
Caribbean will stall from the Windward Passage to Costa Rica on
Saturday and gradually dissipate through Sunday. Strong northerly
winds will prevail west of the front, increasing to near-gale
along the coast of Nicaragua.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N71W to
21N76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of
the front mainly north of 22N. Gale-force winds are depicted in
the latest scatterometer data north of 27N and west of 70W. To the
east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N37W to 26N55W.

A pair of surface troughs are analyzed in this map. The first
extends along 57W from 17N-23N while the second one is along 36W
from 20N-26N. Scattered showers are noted along each trough.

The cold front over the western Atlantic will stall from 27N65W
to the Windward Passage on Saturday night. Near gale to gale
force southwesterly flow will prevail west of the front overnight
then diminish by Saturday afternoon. Remnants of the front will
drift northwest early next week, with winds and seas diminishing
across the region this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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