[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A broad area of strong to near gale force winds will continue
across the eastern Gulf through early this evening. Expect a
W to NW gale force wind, and seas across portions of the central
and northern Gulf as high as 14 to 21 feet in W swell. See the
latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Atlantic Ocean Gale...

SW to W winds 30 to 40 kt are in the western Atlantic behind a
cold front near 31N74W to the eastern Bahamas near 25N76W.
Expect this SW to W gale force winds to continue tonight with
seas as high as 14 to 21 feet in W swell. Near gale to gale force
southwesterly flow will prevail W of the front overnight then
diminish by Sat afternoon. See the latest High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale...

NE gale force winds are forecast this weekend with a NE to E wind
25 to 35 kt and seas 7 to 11 feet in E swell, from 11N to 15N
between 72W and 80W including Colombia beginning Saturday night.
See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N30W,
01N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 180 nm
on either side of the ITCZ. Numerous showers are also extending
from 20N to 10N between 20W to 30W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N to 01S between 43W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As the cold front exits the area, strong to near gale force winds
across the eastern Gulf continues this afternoon. A 1031 mb high
pressure located over Mexico extends into the western portion of
the Gulf. Scattered showers are observed along the Florida
peninsula with strong gusty winds over the Gulf. No other
significatn convection is observed across the basin.

Strong to near gale force winds across the eastern Gulf this
evening will diminish to 20 kt or less overnight. Large seas of
up to 22 ft will subside to less than 8 ft by Sat evening. High
pressure building behind the front will shift eastward across the
central Gulf on Sat, and move across the Florida Panhandle on
Sun, leaving a ridge from the Florida Big Bend to SE Texas on Mon.
Fresh return flow will set up across the NW waters on Tue with
these conditions spreading E across the entire gulf waters on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the western Atlantic into central Cuba
and enters the west central Caribbean Sea near 20N77W to 13N83W
in Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed
from eastern Jamaica into eastern Cuba up to 180 nm ahead of the
cold front. Scattered showers are within 80 nm east of the front
south of 15N between 79W-80W.

Strong to near gale force trades will continue across the south-
central Caribbean through Wed, increasing to minimal gale force
along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours
beginning on Sat night. A cold front from central Cuba to
Nicaragua will stall from the Windward Passage to Costa Rica on
Sat and gradually dissipate through Sun. Strong northerly winds
will prevail W of the front, increasing to near gale force along
the coast of Nicaving a riragua.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic passes through 31N74W to
the eastern Bahamas and into central Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the cold front. Gale
force winds are observed in the latest scatterometer south of
32N-27N between 76W-80W. A stationary front passes through 31N38W
to 26N50W, and to 23N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 31N-35N between 35W-39W.

A surface trough is along 23N53W to 12N59W. Scattered showers are
possible in the vicinity of the trough near the Lesser Antilles.

A cold front over the western Atlantic will continue E across the
forecast waters, stalling from 27N65W to the Windward Passage on
Sat night. Near gale to gale force southwesterly flow will prevail
W of the front overnight then diminish by Sat afternoon. Remnants
of the front will drift NW on Mon and Tue, with winds and seas
diminishing across the region this weekend. Moderate to fresh
easterlies expected S of 28N on Tue and Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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