[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The current forecast, at 21/1200 UTC, consists of: W-to-NW GALE-
FORCE winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 20 feet with
the highest seas near 27N87W, N of 22N E of 90W.

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The current forecast, at 21/1200 UTC, consists of: a cold front
from 31N76W to 22N78W. Expect S-to-SW GALE-FORCE winds, and sea
heights ranging from 8 feet to 19 feet, highest seas near 31N76W,
W of a line from 31N70W to 23N80W.

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The 36-hour forecast, from the 21/1200 UTC forecast, consists of"
GALE-FORCE NE winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13
feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W.

Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for
more details for each area and each situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N26W,
02N32W, and 01N43W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 08N southward between 30W and 52W in parts of
coastal Brazil. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are from 07N southward from 30W eastward.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD, ACROSS FLORIDA, AND
INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N81W in the Atlantic Ocean, just to
the east of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, to NW Cuba along
81W, to eastern Honduras along 84W/85W, and into eastern El
Salvador. A developing cold front is within 150 nm to 200 nm to
the east of the cold front from 24N northward, and from 60 nm to
120 nm to the east of the cold front from 24N southward. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line from southern
Honduras near 13N87W, to 19N80W, to 25N76W in the Bahamas, beyond
31N73W in the Atlantic Ocean. Similar clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, across the islands, and the
Bahamas and in the Atlantic Ocean from 14N to 25N from 72W
westward. A surface trough trails the Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida
cold front, from the Florida Big Bend into the east central Gulf
of Mexico to the central Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 28N northward from 86W eastward. 24-hour
rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at
21/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.50 in
Freeport in the Bahamas.

Strong to gale force winds in the central and eastern sections of
the Gulf of Mexico will diminish from W to E across the basin
through this afternoon. Large seas, as high as 20 feet, will
subside to less than 8 feet by late Saturday. Surface high
pressure building behind the front will shift eastward across the
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and move across the Florida
Panhandle on Sunday. A surface ridge will develop from the
Florida Big Bend to SE Texas on Monday. Fresh return flow will
set up across the NW Gulf of Mexico waters on Tuesday.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the coastal sections of
Venezuela beyond Hispaniola.

Rainshowers are possible, in clusters of broken low level clouds,
across much of the Caribbean Sea, mostly from 70W eastward.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 21/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.06 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.02 in Trinidad.

Fresh to locally strong winds will continue across the south central
Caribbean Sea through Tuesday, increasing to minimal GALE-FORCE
along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours on
Saturday night, on Sunday night, and again on Tuesday night.
The current cold front from W Cuba to Honduras will reach from
the Windward Passage to Costa Rica on Saturday morning, where it
will dissipate gradually through Sunday. Strong northerly winds
will prevail W of the front, increasing to near GALE-FORCE along
the coast of Nicaragua.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N40W to 26N50W, and to
23N61W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
25N northward between 33W and 45W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward between 30W
and 70W.

A surface trough is along 23N53W to 20N56W 17N57W 13N58W.
Rainshowers are possible in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Caribbean Sea 11N to 24N between 51W and 63W.

A cold front that is in the western waters will shift across the
forecast waters, stalling from near 27N65W to the Windward Passage
on Saturday night. Near gale to gale force southerly wind flow
will prevail W of the front, and N of 27N E of the front today,
before diminishing by early Saturday. Remnants of the stalled
front will drift NW on Monday and Tuesday, with winds and seas
diminishing across the region during this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net