[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Northeast gale-force winds are forecast to pulse this weekend at
night from 11N to 13N between 73W and 77W beginning this evening,
with seas 9 to 12 feet. See the latest High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to
00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S-04N
between 26W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the eastern and central Gulf of
Mexico, with a 1023 mb high present. High pressure is centered
over the Florida Panhandle near 29N85W. Gentle to moderate
winds are observed across the Gulf as ridge remains in control.
No significant precipitation activity is observed at this time
over the basin. The ridge will shift SE through Sun. A weak cold
front will move into the NW waters on Sun, stall from the Florida
Big Bend to the Texas Coastal Bend on Mon, and gradually dissipate
through early Tue. Fresh return flow will set up across the NW
waters on Tue, with these conditions spreading E across the entire
gulf waters by early Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 19N75W to
western Jamaica near 18N78W to the central coast of Costa Rica
near 10N83W. Broken to overcast clouds and scattered showers are
seen along the front and extending to 180 nm west of the front.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are seen over Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands, near Trinidad and the SE Caribbean. The central
Caribbean between 66W-75W is free of any significant shower
activity, with partly cloudy skies.

Strong to near gale force trades will continue across the
S-central Caribbean through Thu night, increasing to minimal gale
force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.
A stationary front extending from E Cuba to Costa Rica will
gradually dissipate through Sun. Fresh to locally strong NE flow
will continue across the W Caribbean through late Mon. Fresh to
locally strong SE flow will develop across the NW Caribbean on Tue
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N65W to the
SE Bahamas near 22N72W then transitions to a stationary front into
E Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered showers are observed within 80 nm
behind the stationary front. Earlier scatterometer pass shows
moderate to fresh winds north of 27N between 64W-76W, but gales
are no longer occurring in the region. To the east, a surface low
north of 31N32W, with a weakening cold front extending from the
low south. A surface trough extends from that point to 28N34W.
Scattered showers are near the vicinity of the front and the
surface trough. A second surface trough is near 27N33W to 20N35W.
Scattered convection is noted 180 nm east of the trough.
Convection associated with this trough is being enhanced by a deep
upper-level trough that extends its axis from 30N34W to 14N44W.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to 22N72W then becomes nearly
stationary to East Cuba. Remnants of the front will drift NW on
Mon and Tue. Moderate to fresh easterlies are expected S of 28N on
Tue, increasing fresh to locally strong on Wed and Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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