[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will continue moving across the west Atlantic through
on Tuesday. Gale-force winds are expected north of 30N between
69W-73W. Return flow will dominate the area for the end of the
week, with another potentially strong cold front impacting the
northwest portion by late Friday. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N27W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 04N between 34W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high pressure over western Texas continues to build
across the Gulf of Mexico with cold air advecting into the basin.
The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northwest
winds across the Gulf waters. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

High pressure will prevail through midweek. The next cold front
will move into the northwest Gulf on Thursday, quickly reaching
the eastern Gulf late that night, pushing southeast across the
basin Fri Night. Strong winds will follow the front, possibly
reaching gale force Thu night over the northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail over the eastern and
central Caribbean with strongest winds near the coast of
Colombia. In the northwest Caribbean, a cold front extends from
western Cuba near 22N81W to to 18N88W. A surface trough is
located from 21N79W to 18N80W with scattered showers. Subsidence
and dry air cover the remainder of the Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in south central
Caribbean through the end of the week, pulsing to near-gale off
the coast of Colombia at night. The cold front in the west
Caribbean will reach from near the Windward Passage to eastern
Honduras by Tuesday night where it will stall and dissipate
through Thursday. Another cold front is expected to enter the
northwest Caribbean by Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 31N68W to 23N80W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front. Gusty winds are
occurring with this line of convection. Farther east, another
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 27N44W with
scattered showers. A surface trough is over the east Atlantic
from 29N27W to 23N22W.

The cold front will continue moving east across the basin through
mid-week. Gale-force winds are possible north of 30N between
69W-73W. Return flow will dominate for the end of the week, with
another potentially strong cold front impacting the northwest
portion of the basin by late Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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