[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A developing cold front from 34N71W to 31N80W will sweep E across
the northern waters Tue. Gale-force winds are expected with this
front north of 29N between 68W-73W Tue evening into Wed morning,
along with seas of 12-16 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 05N17W to 02N29W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N39W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of 05N between 30W-50W. Isolated moderate
convection is seen south of 05N between 03W-19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high pressure over east Texas continues to build across
the Gulf of Mexico with cold air residing over the basin. The
latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict
moderate to fresh NNW winds across the Gulf waters. No
significant convection is noted at this time.

High pressure will prevail through midweek. The next cold front
will move into the northwest Gulf on Thursday, quickly reaching
the eastern Gulf late that night, pushing southeast of the basin
Fri night. Strong winds will follow the front, possibly reaching
gale force Thu night over the northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the northwest Caribbean, a cold front extends from central
Cuba near 22N79W to 20N84W. The front continues as stationary
from that point to 16N88W. A surface trough is located ahead of
the front from the central Bahamas to 21N78W to 16N81W. Scattered
showers are noted near the SW end of the front in the Gulf of
Honduras from 15N-18N between 86W-88W. Isolated showers are near
the trough between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and northward to
eastern Cuba. Subsidence and dry air cover the eastern and central
Caribbean east of 77W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through Sat night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of
Colombia at night. The front from central Cuba to southern Belize
will reach from near the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras by
Tue night where it will stall and dissipate through Thu. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail behind the front through early Wed.
Another cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Fri afternoon,
dissipating over the NW Caribbean through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 32N64.5W to the
central Bahamas to central Cuba. A secondary developing cold
front extends from 34N71W to 32N75W to 31N80W. Scattered showers
are noted near and within 120 nm east of the first front N of 29N.
Isolated showers are elsewhere N of 25N between 59W-75W.

Both cold fronts in the W Atlantic will continue moving E. The
secondary cold front is expected to produce gale force winds near
the front N of 29N between 68W-73W late Tue and early Wed. The
secondary front will catch up to the first front and they will
merge on Wed. Return flow will dominate the area for the end of the
week, with another potentially strong cold front impacting the
northwest portion by late Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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