[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A reinforcing cold front will move across the northern waters
Tue, with the two boundaries merging by Wed. Gale winds are
possible N of 29N and E of 77W with the next front. Return flow
will dominate for the end of the week, with another potentially
strong cold front impacting the NW portion by late Fri. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N35W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is well south of the monsoon trough from 05N-02N
between 09W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and
along and within the ITCZ from 08N-04N between 30W-50W near the
coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high pressure over western Texas continues to build
across the Gulf of Mexico with cold air advecting into the basin.
The latest ASCAT shows moderate to fresh N to NW winds with
broken/overcast low-level stratocumulus across the Gulf. Scattered
streamer showers are noted south of 23N between 82W-87.
Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted at this time. The
cold front has exited the area and enter the western Caribbean.

High pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail
through midweek. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf
Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night, pushing SE
of the Basin Fri Night. Strong winds will follow the front,
possibly reaching gale force Thu night over the northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trade winds of 15-25 kt are over the eastern and central Caribbean
with strongest winds near the coast of N Colombia. In the NW
Caribbean, a cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N82W to
to 18N87W. A surface trough is located 80 nm southeast of the
front from 27N74W to 19N83W. Scattered showers are over the NW
Caribbean near the SW coast of Cuba 20N78W to 16N78W. These
showers are being enhanced by some upper level divergence in the
area. Subsidence and relatively dry air cover the remainder of the
central and eastern Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in S central Caribbean
through Fri night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia
at night. A cold front from western Cuba to northern Belize will
reach from near the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras by Tue
night where it will stall and dissipate through Thu. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail behind the front this afternoon through
early Wed. Another cold front may enter the NW Caribbean by Fri
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the NW Atlantic from 31N69W to NW Cuba
near 23N82W to the western Caribbean. A surface trough is ahead
of the front from 27N74W to 19N83W. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is seen north of 28N between 55W-70W. This is
associated with a 1010 mb low 35N64W. Gusty winds are occurring
with this line of convection. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing
convection in both of those two areas.

Farther E, a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W
to 25N48W. It continues as a stationary front from that point to
25N49W to a dissipating front 26N52W. Scattered showers are seen N
of 30N between 36W-59W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic
from 30N30W to 23N25W.

A cold front from 31N75W to S Florida will shift E across the
basin through Wed. A reinforcing cold front will move across the
northern waters Tue, with the two boundaries merging by Wed. Gale
winds are possible N of 29N and E of 77W with the next front.
Return flow will dominate for the end of the week, with another
potentially strong cold front impacting the NW portion by late
Fri.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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