[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101142
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

At 10/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N72W to 29N75W to just
south of Miami Florida near 25N81W to 22N84W. The front is moving
eastward. The gale warning will expire at 1200 UTC this morning
north of 30N between the front and 65W. Expect strong to near-
gale S to SW winds ahead of the front after that time. A second
cold front will move across the northern waters Tue. Gale force
winds are possible N of 29N E of 77E, returning around 0000 UTC
Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is well south of the monsoon trough from 00N-05N
between 04W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and
north of the ITCZ from 01N-06N between 25W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 10/0900 UTC, the cold front that was moving through the SE
Gulf has now exited the Gulf of Mexico, extending from Key West to
western Cuba to south of Cozumel Mexico. Scattered light to
moderate showers are occurring near this front. Fresh N winds and
broken to overcast low-level stratocumulus cover much of the Gulf.

High pressure will build in today ahead of the cold front that
just moved out of the SE Gulf past the Yucatan Channel. High pres
building in the wake of the front will prevail through midweek.
The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly
reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night, pushing SE of the basin
Fri Night. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trade winds of 15-25 kt are over the eastern and central
Caribbean with strongest winds near the coast of N Colombia. In
the NW Caribbean, a cold front at 0900 UTC extends from western
Cuba near 22N84W to 19N88W to 17N92W. A surface trough is located
from 23N80W to 16N84W as of 0900 UTC. Isolated showers are over
the NW Caribbean from 18N-21N between 74W-80W. These showers are
being enhanced by some upper level divergence in the area.
Subsidence and relatively dry air cover the remainder of the
central and eastern Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through Fri night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of
Colombia at night. The cold front in the Yucatan Channel will
reach from near the Windward Passage to near the
Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will stall and
dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind
the front this afternoon through early Wed. Another cold front may
enter the NW Caribbean by Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the NW Atlantic from 31N73W to south of
Miami Florida near 25N81W to 22N84W. A surface trough is ahead of
the front from 26N77W to 22N81W. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is seen within 60 nm of a line extending from 32N67.5W
to 28N74W. Gusty winds are occurring with this line of convection.
Scattered showers are also occurring N of 29N between 54W-64W.
Upper-level diffluence is enhancing convection in both of those
two areas.

Farther E, a cold front is over the central Atlantic from
32N40W to 26N50W. It continues as a stationary front from that
point to 25N55W to 27N59W. Scattered showers are seen N of 30N
between 35W-41W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from
30N32W to 26N28W. An upper level trough over the E Atlantic with
axis from 32N25W to 25N33W to 18N50W is helping to enhance
scattered showers N of 28N between 14W-22W.

Expect the cold front in the west Atlantic to move E across the
basin through Wed. The gale warning in effect N of 30N ahead of
the front in the S to SW flow will expire around 1200 UTC today.
A second cold front will move across the northern waters Tue, with
gale winds possible by 0000 UTC Wed. The two fronts are forecast
to merge on Wed. Return flow will dominate for the end of the
week, with another potentially strong cold front impacting the NW
portion by late Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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