[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front off the coast of N Florida to central Florida from
32N77W to 28N81W will move further E into the Atlantic. A gale
warning is in effect through 1200 UTC Monday N of 29 N ahead of
the front. Expect S to SW gale force winds 30 to 35 kt, and seas 9
to 11 feet, N of 29N between 65W-75W. Winds will diminish to
below gale force around 1200 UTC Monday. A second cold front will
move across the northern waters Tue. Gale force winds are forecast
to return to the area around 0000 UTC Wed N of 29N and E of 77W
with the second front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Numerous moderate/scattered
strong convection is well south of the monsoon trough from 00N-
02N between 05W-10W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection
is elsewhere from 00N-05N between 03W-15W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen near and just north of the ITCZ from
02N-06N between 24W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 10/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Melbourne Florida to
just south of Fort Myers Florida near 26N82W to the NE tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula near 21.5N87W, remaining inland over Mexico to
17N93W. Scattered light to moderate showers are occurring along
and within 120 nm ahead of the front. Winds over the Bay of
Campeche have diminished below gale force, and the gale warning
has expired there. The remainder of the Gulf W of front has fresh
N winds. Broken low-level stratocumulus clouds cover much of the
Gulf W of the front.

The cold front over the SE Gulf will continue to shift SE across
the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico through early this morning. High
pres will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front will
move into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late
Thu night, pushing SE of the basin Fri Night. Strong to near gale
force winds will follow that next front, potentially higher.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tradewinds of 15-25 kt are over the eastern and central Caribbean
with strongest winds near the coast of N Colombia. In the NW
Caribbean, a surface trough is located about 60 nm ahead of the
cold front mentioned above in the Gulf of Mexico section, from the
W tip of Cuba to Cozumel Mexico as of 0300 UTC. Scattered showers
are over the NW Caribbean from 18N-22N between 77W-84W.
Subsidence and relatively dry air cover the eastern and central
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through Fri night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of
Colombia at night. A cold front that is currently moving into the
Yucatan Channel, will reach from near the Windward Passage to
near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will
stall and dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will
prevail behind the front Mon afternoon through early Wed. Another
cold front may enter the NW Caribbean by Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the NW Atlantic from 31N76W to Melbourne
Florida. A surface trough is ahead of the front from Grand Bahama
Island to Key Largo Florida to western Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 60 nm of a line extending from 32N72W to
30N75W to 27N78W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring
N of 29N between 60W-69W. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing
convection in both of those two areas.

Farther E, a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N41W
to 27N49W to 25N52W. It continues as a stationary front from that
point to 25N55W to 26N60W. Scattered showers are seen N of 27N
between 35W-42W. Elsewhere along and within 60 nm ahead of the
front, isolated showers are noted. A surface trough is over the E
Atlantic from 31N33W to 24N28W. An upper level trough over the E
Atlantic with axis from 32N25W to 25N33W to 18N50W is helping to
enhance scattered showers N of 27N between 15W-25W.

Expect the cold front off the coast of northern Florida to move E.
A gale warning is in effect N of 29N ahead of the front in the
S to SW flow through 1200 UTC Mon. A second cold front will
move across the northern waters Tue, with gale winds possible by
00Z Wed. The two fronts are forecast to merge on Wed. Return flow
will dominate for the end of the week, with another potentially
strong cold front impacting the NW portion by late Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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