[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche
will continue to shift SE across the remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico through the evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds
and thunderstorms will continue developing along a squall line
90 nm SE of the front. Expect NW to N winds 25 to 35 knots with
seas around 8 to 10 feet. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front over the Florida panhandle extending into the Bay of
Campeche will move off the coast of northern Florida this afternoon
A gale warning is in effect N of 29 N ahead of the front. Fresh to
strong southerly winds and thunderstorms will continue developing
along a squall line that extends across central Florida into the
western Atlantic coast. Expect SE S to SW gale force winds 30 to
35 knots, and seas 8 to 10 feet. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Liberia
near 05N09W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
03N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection are noted south of
27N between 30W-40W. Scattered showers are also seen along and
within the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 29N84W to 23N90W into the Bay of
Campeche near 18N93W. A squall line 90 nm ahead of the front
extends from 29N82W to 24N86W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection are developing across the Florida peninsula into the
Gulf of Mexico along and within the squall line. A warm front
continues from the 1010 mb low east along the Florida panhandle to
31N79W.

The cold front will continue to shift SE across the remainder of
the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. Fresh to strong southerly
winds and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front, mainly
N of 25N. Fresh to strong winds will prevail W of the front through
tonight, with gale force winds expected over the SW gulf today.
High pres will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front
will move into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf
late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea with
a surface ridge building across the the northeast Atlantic into
the Caribbean. Under this ridge, a stable airmass remains over
the region with dry conditions. No significant convection is
noted across the Greater Antilles. Scattered showers are possible
near the coast of Panama and Costa Rica associated to the proximity
of the monsoon trough near the area. Moderate to fresh trade winds
are noted in the latest scatterometer south of Hispaniola to the
NW coast of Venezuela.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean
through Thu night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia
at night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel late
tonight, reaching from near the Windward Passage to near the
Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will stall and
dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind
the front Mon afternoon through early Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low pressure is centered near 30N84W over the Florida panhandle.
A warm front extends east from the low into the southern Georgia
coast near 31N81W to 31N61W, then transitions into a stationary
front to 31N55W. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends
south of 32N between 71W to 81 W associated to the approaching
front over the Gulf of Mexico.

Further east into central Atlantic Ocean, a cold front extends
31N46W to 29N48W. A surface trough extends southwest of a cold
front from 28N48W to 24N64W. Scattered showers are noted between
90 to 180 nm east of the front. No significant convection is
noted south of 28N within the proximity of the trough at this
time.

Upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N26W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N
northward between Africa and 30W. A surface trough 29N30W to
23N25W. Scattered convection are between 15W-28W and south of 31N.

A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida later
today. A gale warning is in effect N of 29N ahead of the front in
the southerly flow today through Mon. Another low pres system may
develop off the Carolinas Mon night, potentially significantly
impacting the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week, with
conditions then improving by the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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