[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front from the central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula to
the eastern Bay of Campeche will continue to shift SE across the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Expect over the
Bay of Campeche NW to N winds 25 to 35 knots with seas around 10
to 13 feet within area bounded by 20N95W to 19N95W to 19N96W to
20N97W to 20N96W to 20N95W. The gale is forecast to end on 10/0000
UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front off the coast of N Florida to central Florida will
move further E into the Atlantic. A gale warning is in effect N
of 29 N ahead of the front. Expect SE S to SW gale force winds
30 to 35 knots, and seas 8 to 10 feet within area bounded by
31N73W to 30N75W to 30N76W to 29N78W to 31N78W to 31N73W. The
gale is forecast to end on 10/1200 UTC. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is S of the monsoon trough from 00N-03N between 00W-
10W. Widely scattered moderate convection is N of the ITCZ from
03N- 06N between 24W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 09/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Daytona Beach Florida
near 29N81W to near Venice Florida near 27N82W to the N Yucatan
Peninsula near 22N88W to the SE Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. Radar
and satellite imagery shows scattered showers within 120 nm E of
the front. A gale is over the Bay of Campeche. See above. The
remainder of the Gulf W of front has 20-30 kt northerly winds.
Broken to overcast low level stratocumulus clouds are also W of
front.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central
Gulf with axis along 90W. Upper level diffluence is E of the
trough over the NW Atlantic enhancing convection.

Expect the cold front to continue to shift SE across the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail W of the front through tonight, with gale force
winds expected over the SW gulf the next few hours. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu
night, pushing SE of the Basin Fri night. Strong to near gale
force winds will follow that next front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the NW
Caribbean W of the Cayman Islands, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and Panama.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean with axis
along 70W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through Fri night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of
Colombia at night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel tonight, reaching from near the Windward Passage to near
the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will stall and
dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind
the front Mon afternoon through early Wed. Another cold front may
enter the NW Caribbean by Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 09/2100 UTC, a cold front extends over the NW Atlantic from
32N78W to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 27N between 68W-79W. Further E, a cold front is
over the central Atlantic from 32N43W to 27N50W to 26N59W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough
is over the E Atlantic from 31N33W to 24N28W.

Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NW
Atlantic N of 26N between 64W-79W enhancing convection. Elsewhere,
an upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 25N between
15W-35W producing scattered showers to include the Canary Islands.

Expect the cold front off the coast of northern Florida to move E.
A gale warning is in effect N of 29N ahead of the front in the
southerly flow through Mon. Another low pres system may develop
off the Carolinas Mon night, potentially significantly impacting
the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week, with
conditions then improving Thu through Fri. Another strong cold
front may impact the NW portion by Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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