[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091152
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 06-hour forecast, from the 09/0600 UTC forecast, consists of:
a cold front from 29N83W to 25N87W to 22N90W to 18.5N95W. Expect
NW-to-N GALE-FORCE winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to
10 feet, S of 21N W of 95W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 06-hour forecast, from the 09/0600 UTC forecast, consists of:
a cold front to the west of the area. Expect S-to-SW GALE-FORCE
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, N of 29N W
of 78W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W, to 04N30W, 03N36W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 04N to 07N between 30W and 39W, and
from the Equator to 02N between 49W and 51W at the coast of Brazil.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 32N55W to 31N63W and 31N70W. A warm
front continues from 31N70W to 31N78W, to 30N in NE Florida near
the coast, to a SW Alabama/FL Panhandle 1010 mb low pressure
center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are within 60 nm on either side of 24N86W 27N84W 31N81W, and then
elsewhere from 29N northward from 75W westward in the Atlantic
Ocean. Rainshowers are possible in the Gulf of Mexico, elsewhere,
to the W and NW of the line that runs from the Florida coast near
27N82W to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The current cold front will continue to shift across the Gulf of
Mexico. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds will be ahead of
the cold front, mainly N of 26N. Fresh to strong winds will
prevail to the W of the front through tonight. GALE-FORCE winds
are expected in the SW Gulf of Mexico today. The cold front will
shift E of the Gulf waters early on Monday. Surface high pressure
will build in its wake. The next cold front will move into the NW
Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late
Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the coast of Colombia near
09N76W, to eastern Honduras, into the Yucatan Channel. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward.

An upper level trough passes through 20N50W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 16N56W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 15N70W in the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
across much of the area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed
for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...are 0.06 in Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia beyond
the southern sections of Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible from
11N southward from 75W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday night, pulsing to near GALE-FORCE
off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into
the Yucatan Channel late tonight, reaching from the Windward
Passage to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tuesday night, where
it will stall and dissipate through Wednesday. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail behind the front from Monday afternoon through
early Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N55W to 31N63W and 31N70W. A warm
front continues from 31N70W to 31N78W, to 30N in NE Florida near
the coast, to a SW Alabama/FL Panhandle 1010 mb low pressure
center. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the N and NW of the
line that runs from 27N80W at the coast of Florida, to 28N70W,
beyond 31N50W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 09/0000 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are
0.02 in Bermuda.

A central Atlantic Ocean surface trough passes through 32N44W to
24N68W and to 27N79W in the NW Bahamas off the coast of south
Florida. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, to the NW of the
line that passes through 32N40W to 24N60W to 24N80W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N26W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N
northward between Africa and 30W. One surface is along 24N25W
20N23W 16N22W. A second surface trough is along 22N31W 18N32W
15N32W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N northward
between the Canary Islands and the Madeira Archipelago and 30W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N northward from 40W
eastward.

A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida today.
GALE-FORCE wind conditions are forecast, N of 29N ahead of the
front, in southerly wind flow, from today through Monday. It is
possible that another low pressure center may develop off the
Carolinas on Monday night, potentially significantly impacting the
waters N of 25N through the middle of the week, with conditions
then improving by the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net