[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 12-hour forecast, from the 09/0000 UTC forecast, consists of:
a low pressure center to the NE of the area. A cold front from
29N83W to 25N87W to 22N90W to 18.5N95W. Expect NW-to-N GALE-FORCE
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, S of 21N W
of 95W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 12-hour forecast, from the 09/0000 UTC forecast, consists of:
a cold front to the west of the area. Expect S-to-SW GALE-FORCE
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, N of 29N W
of 78W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 06N15W and 05N17W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N17W, to 04N23W, 04N37W, curving to 02N50W. Isolated and
disorganized moderate rainshowers are from 08N southward from 50W
eastward. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front passes through 31N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Florida near 30N82W, to a SW Alabama 1010 mb low pressure center.
A cold front continues from the 1010 mb low pressure center, to
27N90W in the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico
along 20N, and inland to 21N99W. A stationary front continues from
21N99W, northwestward, to the Far West of Texas. An upper level
trough is digging through Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi
into the Deep South of Texas. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico from 26N
northward from 88W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 23N to 26N from 90W eastward. Dense multilayered clouds and
other possible rainshowers are to the NW of the cold front.

The current SW Alabama 1010 mb low pressure center will move
eastward, dragging a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong
to near gale-force southerly winds will be ahead of the cold
front, mainly N of 26N. It is possible that the wind speeds may be
higher in and near thunderstorms that are ahead of the cold
front. Fresh to strong winds will prevail to the W of the front
from tonight through Sunday night. GALE-FORCE winds are expected
in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The cold front will shift E of
the Gulf waters early on Monday. Surface high pressure will build
in its wake. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf of
Mexico on Thursday, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late
Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the coast of Colombia near
09N76W, to eastern Honduras, into the Yucatan Channel. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward.

An upper level trough passes through 20N50W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 16N56W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 15N70W in the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken low level clouds,
across much of the area. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed
for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...are 0.06 in Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia beyond
the southern sections of Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible from
11N southward from 75W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday night, pulsing to near GALE-FORCE
off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into
the Yucatan Channel on Sunday night, reaching from the Windward
Passage to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tuesday night, where
it will stall and dissipate through Wednesday. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail behind the front from Monday afternoon through
early Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N63W to 30N72W. A warm front
continues from 30N72W to 31N77W, to Florida near 30N82W, to a SW
Alabama 1010 mb low pressure center. Rainshowers are possible to
the NW of the line that passes through 30N44W to 30N60W, to
28N81W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period
that ended at 09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are
0.02 in Bermuda.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N46W to
31N50W. The front continues as dissipating stationary, from 31N50W
to 27N60W, and as a dissipating warm front from 27N60W across the
Bahamas to 26N80W off the coast of south Florida. Rainshowers are
possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N40W to
25N60W to 24N80W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N28W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between Africa and 33W. One surface is along 24N27W
20N24W 16N22W. A second surface trough is along 22N31W 20N32W
17N33W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N northward
between the Canary Islands and 30W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W eastward, and from 10N to
20N from 35W eastward.

The current stationary front will dissipate completely later
tonight. The current warm front will move northward, outside the
area tonight. A strong cold front will move off the coast of
northern Florida on Sunday. GALE-FORCE wind conditions are
forecast, N of 29N ahead of the front, in southerly wind flow,
through Monday. It is possible that another low pressure center
may develop off the Carolinas on Monday night, potentially
significantly impacting the waters N of 25N through the middle of
the week, with conditions then improving by the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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