[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A low pressure center over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will
track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, dragging
a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. Expect NW to N gale force
winds on 09/1200 UTC over the SW Gulf of Mexico within area
bounded by 20N95W to 19N95W to 19N96W to 20N97W to 21N97W to
20N95W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz. Expect
the gale to last six hours. Please see the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Sun.
Gale conditions are possible N of 30N ahead of the front to 73W in
the southerly flow Sun through Mon. Expect SW winds 30 to 35
knots with seas height ranging from 8 to 13 feet. Please see the
latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N08W to the
Atlantic Ocean near 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
03N33W to 06N38W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 02N-07N between 34W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 08/2100 UTC a 1010 mb low is centered over SE Louisiana near
30N90W. A cold front extends S from the low to S of Veracruz
Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 90 nm E of the front N of 24N. A warm front
extends E from the low to N Florida near St Augustine at 30N81W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the warm
front. 20-25 kt N winds are presently W of the cold front. 20-30
kt S winds are E of the cold front near SE Louisiana. See above
about the forecast Gale over the SW Gulf.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas with axis
along 97W. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough over the
north central Gulf of Mexico enhancing convection.

The deepening surface low pressure system over SE Louisiana will
track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast, dragging a cold front
across the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale southerly winds
will prevail ahead of the front, mainly N of 26N. Winds may be
higher in and near thunderstorms ahead of the front. Fresh to
strong winds will prevail W of the front tonight through Sun
night, with gale force winds expected over the SW gulf Sun. The
cold front will shift E of the gulf waters early Mon, with high
pres building in its wake. The next cold front will move into the
NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico,
Jamaica, the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica
and Panama.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W. A
trough is over the E Caribbean. Strong subsidence is over most of
the Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of
Colombia at night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan
Channel Sun night, reaching from near the Windward Passage to near
the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will stall
and dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will prevail
behind the front Mon afternoon through early Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 08/2100 UTC, a warm front is over the NW Atlantic from St
Augustine Florida at 30N81W to 31N76W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. A dissipating stationary front extends
from the central Atlantic near 32N50W to 24N64W to 24N70W. A
dissipating warm front continues to 25N80W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front.

Further east, a surface trough extends south of 23N between 25W-
21W. Scattered convection is noted south of 30N between 20W-30W.
Another surface trough is seen south of 24N between 30W-33W. No
significant convection is noted at this time with this feature.

The dissipating warm front over the N Bahamas will dissipate
later this evening. A cold front will move off the coast of
northern Florida on Sun. A gale warning is in effect N of 30N
ahead of the front in the southerly flow Sun through Mon. Another
low pres system may develop off the Carolinas Mon night,
potentially significantly impacting the waters N of 25N through
the middle of the week, with conditions then improving by the end
of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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